# Weather forecast (or not)



## Designer (Jan 27, 2015)

Now that the storm has materialized, please indicate your impression of weather forecasters' accuracy.


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## mmaria (Jan 27, 2015)

hm... I can't participate in this thread


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## tecboy (Jan 27, 2015)

I enjoy having rain.


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## SquarePeg (Jan 27, 2015)

Will have to wait until it ends to see about the totals.  It is much worse out there than it looks from inside.


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## Dagwood56 (Jan 27, 2015)

They really blew this forecast. Out of two storms, we got about 2 inches total in my area of PA. The storm we had Saturday was bigger and dropped more snow than they said it would. In my opinion, weather forecasts were more accurate before all the new technology. To be sure of what the weather is these days, one must really look out the window!


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## waday (Jan 27, 2015)

They're only as accurate as the data that they have at their disposal. They predict based on modeling/data/observations, and sometimes things change last minute.


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## runnah (Jan 27, 2015)

Getting nasty up here. Visibility is down to like 20 meters.


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## Braineack (Jan 27, 2015)

weather forecasters are employed by local grocery stores.


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## runnah (Jan 27, 2015)

Packs of wolves are picking off some of the weaker townspeople.


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## pgriz (Jan 27, 2015)

Personally, I prefer that the forecasters err on the side of caution.  Complaining about the storm that underwhelmed is better (and more entertaining)  than finding oneself in a critical situation because the storm was worse than expected.


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## Designer (Jan 27, 2015)

runnah said:


> Getting nasty up here. Visibility is down to like 20 meters.


I think I've discovered your problem; You missed your turn and went into Canada.


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## runnah (Jan 27, 2015)

Designer said:


> runnah said:
> 
> 
> > Getting nasty up here. Visibility is down to like 20 meters.
> ...



I like the metric system, it's all very neat and tidy.


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## ronlane (Jan 27, 2015)

Weather person, the only job (other than in baseball) where you can be wrong most of the time and still keep your job.


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## Gary A. (Jan 27, 2015)

ronlane said:


> Weather person, the only job (other than in baseball) where you can be wrong most of the time and still keep your job.


... And elected officials (but were not supposed to speak of politics here).


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## ronlane (Jan 27, 2015)

True @Gary A. but that is our own fault, we keep electing them in to office. lol.

Next topic before we cause this to be locked.


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## bribrius (Jan 27, 2015)

the visibility is awesome.  And this is the dead center of the city. Going down the rural roads i was running into four foot snow drifts (or higher) and kind of "guessing" if i was on the road or not.


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## runnah (Jan 27, 2015)

This is the highway. Slow going.


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## Gary A. (Jan 27, 2015)

Yesterday, it rained here.


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## bribrius (Jan 27, 2015)

runnah said:


> This is the highway. Slow going.
> View attachment 94205


wait till you get to the back roads... see what that subaru is made of. LMAO


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## bribrius (Jan 27, 2015)

And they just upped our forecast to up to 30 inches...


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## bribrius (Jan 27, 2015)

makes for a nice effect. the lake is behind this, course you cant see it.


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## SquarePeg (Jan 27, 2015)

Even the post offices are closed and no mail delivery today.  I'm glad they aren't out there.  I have a few cousins who are mail carriers and it's a tough job at this time of year.


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## bribrius (Jan 27, 2015)

SquarePeg said:


> Even the post offices are closed and no mail delivery today.  I'm glad they aren't out there.  I have a few cousins who are mail carriers and it's a tough job at this time of year.


No doubt. Most places are closed. Pretty dead out there, especially once you get off the main roads. The back back roads are kind of a make your own way kind of deal. Some plowed by the towns, some not. some covered in drifts so you really just can't tell if it was plowed yet or not.


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## bribrius (Jan 27, 2015)

this cracked me up. One of the few cars i saw. I think they were surviving just on being on the main street in the city. But at the traffic light they got stuck . Kind of shocked they even ventured out.


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## MSnowy (Jan 27, 2015)

Spot on in MA today Blizzard conditions, zero visibility , 16-24" of  snow and winds gusting 50-60 mph

This was looking out my window this morning. I couldnt see 20ft


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## bribrius (Jan 27, 2015)




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## KmH (Jan 27, 2015)

It is utterly remarkable how accurate weather reporting is these days, considering how complex Earth's weather system is.

One thing that really helped weather forecasting was understanding how much Earth's oceans influence how weather develops in the atmosphere. Today, meteorologists basically model Earth's atmosphere and oceans as a single system.


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## NancyMoranG (Jan 27, 2015)

runnah said:


> This is the highway. Slow going.
> View attachment 94205



WHAT WERE YOU DOING OUT ON THE ROADS?
You were supposed to be staying safe and warm.
Nancy


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## SquarePeg (Jan 27, 2015)

@MSnowy I love the high key snowstorm shot.  Perfectly captures what it was like here this morning.


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## pgriz (Jan 27, 2015)

Winter driving skills:

Get real snow tires installed.  They work.  They're a PITA each fall and spring, but when you are in the snowstorm...  
Do not spin wheels.  Otherwise you just make ice.  If you're in the snow-bank, you just get lower.  And lower.  Some people forget the concept that when you find yourself in a hole, stop digging!
Do not brake.  Well, very lightly.  Because once the wheels lose traction, your momentum will keep whatever direction you had before you applied the brakes.  ABS helps but does not replace intelligence.  Winter teaches more people about momentum than all the physics classes combined.
When turning with front-wheel drive, turn with power.  If you do it any other way, you'll understand why.
Do not assume that drift is "only" a foot high.  It might be.  It might also be 1" of snow on top of 11" of ice.  Or it might actually be 2 feet deep.  Your muffler will let you know if you've guessed wrong.
4-wheel drive does not replace intelligence.  'Nuff said.
Given that you're not going to brake and you have minimal ability to turn, drive at half the normal speed.  It's also a good speed to observe other people losing control and spinning out.
If visibility is less than 100 meters (300 feet), use your headlights and flashers.  They'll see your lights before they see you.  Will it be enough?  Depends on whether they suffering from weather-induced idiocy or not.
Winter wiper blades work a lot better than the other kind, unless you think that wiping your windshield with blocks of ice is exciting.
I'm sure those of you who drive in winter conditions know all this stuff.  For the rest of you, it's a learned skill that gets relearned every winter with the first snowfall.


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## bribrius (Jan 27, 2015)




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## bribrius (Jan 27, 2015)

yeah, i am mostly going on the opposite of mount snowy. Because going through these you really wont seen anything but bright white if i exposed correctly.


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## bribrius (Jan 27, 2015)

wind gust the visibility goes to about zero. Lulls aren't too bad. This is a front end loader, but you wouldnt know it.


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## pgriz (Jan 27, 2015)

So, Brian....  Are you transmitting while driving?  or this was from earlier in the day?


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## gsgary (Jan 27, 2015)

bribrius said:


> View attachment 94204 the visibility is awesome.  And this is the dead center of the city. Going down the rural roads i was running into four foot snow drifts (or higher) and kind of "guessing" if i was on the road or not.


Whats that blue line at the top


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## bribrius (Jan 27, 2015)

gsgary said:


> bribrius said:
> 
> 
> > View attachment 94204 the visibility is awesome.  And this is the dead center of the city. Going down the rural roads i was running into four foot snow drifts (or higher) and kind of "guessing" if i was on the road or not.
> ...


windshield.


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## bribrius (Jan 27, 2015)

pgriz said:


> So, Brian....  Are you transmitting while driving?  or this was from earlier in the day?


couple hours ago. went plowing.  Going back out in a bit prolly.


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## SquarePeg (Jan 27, 2015)

bribrius - I like these, you can have a nice storm series by the time you're done.


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## bribrius (Jan 27, 2015)

well, and i went into the city to get a coffee (dunkin donuts was open)

 . Real quiet out there.


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## runnah (Jan 27, 2015)

NancyMoranG said:


> runnah said:
> 
> 
> > This is the highway. Slow going.
> ...



Work needed to be done.


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## runnah (Jan 27, 2015)

pgriz said:


> Winter driving skills:
> 
> Get real snow tires installed.  They work.  They're a PITA each fall and spring, but when you are in the snowstorm...
> Do not spin wheels.  Otherwise you just make ice.  If you're in the snow-bank, you just get lower.  And lower.  Some people forget the concept that when you find yourself in a hole, stop digging!
> ...



I'd add that no sudden movements and anticipation are the biggest keys to winter driving. Sudden wheel turning and braking are the quickest way to lose traction. The best way to avoid this is to anticipate things much further in advanced than during normal conditions.

More tips:

- always carry warm clothing and good boots in your car.
- make sure there is gas and wiper fluid 
- carry a high visibility vest
- throw a collapsable shovel in the trunk.
- jumper cables and a real tow strap 
- yellow tinted glasses help on low vis and flat light conditions
- always leave plenty of room when following another car
- never pass a plow truck
- take your time
- always clean off and warm up your car.


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## MSnowy (Jan 27, 2015)

SquarePeg said:


> @MSnowy I love the high key snowstorm shot.  Perfectly captures what it was like here this morning.


 
Thanks. Watch for us (Scituate) on the news tonight, high tide is around 5


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## limr (Jan 27, 2015)

Winter driving is one of the reasons why I drive a car with a manual transmission. Easier to control speed and be able to follow all the other rules for keeping things as safe as possible. If I'm driving on a snowy highway, I am in the right lane with my flashers on driving slow. It always astounds me how fast other people drive in bad conditions and leave so little space between cars. It's clear how many people rely on their vehicles now to get them out of trouble.

Oh, and I might add another tip - keep some kitty litter or sand in the trunk.


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## Gary A. (Jan 27, 2015)

gsgary said:


> bribrius said:
> 
> 
> > View attachment 94204 the visibility is awesome.  And this is the dead center of the city. Going down the rural roads i was running into four foot snow drifts (or higher) and kind of "guessing" if i was on the road or not.
> ...


Sky?


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## terri (Jan 27, 2015)

ugh!   Winter driving is one of the reasons I moved away from Michigan!   

Stay safe, everyone!


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## bribrius (Jan 27, 2015)

SquarePeg said:


> bribrius - I like these, you can have a nice storm series by the time you're done.


 i have fifty photos that are mostly just white.  Not really that interesting. But really there ain't a lot going on out there except plow trucks and loaders trying to keep the roads clear. Here is a lull, about the only time you could see anything.  Really just not a hell of a lot going on but white.


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## Designer (Jan 27, 2015)

limr said:


> Oh, and I might add another tip - keep some kitty litter or sand in the trunk.



Heh, heh.  That reminded me of when we had the longish commute, I put a cupful of kitty litter in each of two coffee cans and snapped on the plastic lids.  

If I have to explain what they were for, it will spoil the moment.


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## SquarePeg (Jan 27, 2015)

MSnowy said:


> SquarePeg said:
> 
> 
> > @MSnowy I love the high key snowstorm shot.  Perfectly captures what it was like here this morning.
> ...



It was ridiculous that they waited until after 6pm to announce they were going to shut off the power for 24 hours!  A little late for people to make other plans.  My friend lives across from the beach in Marshfield and the sea wall has broken open.  Just watching it on the news now.


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## jsecordphoto (Jan 27, 2015)

The biggest problem I've had is finding a place to get lunch today..Everywhere is closed! We have maybe a foot or so right now. Seems like the coast got hit pretty hard


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## bribrius (Jan 27, 2015)

SquarePeg said:


> MSnowy said:
> 
> 
> > SquarePeg said:
> ...


i still have power... suckers..... LOL  

course now that i said that watch it go out.


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## SquarePeg (Jan 27, 2015)

We have power.  It's just one small area of the town where msnowy lives that I was referring to.  The houses right on the ocean - they cut the power on purpose due to a fire a few years ago that was sparked by the water coming over the sea wall.  It turned ugly quickly because the houses along the beach are close together and the firemen couldn't get in there due to the flooding.  They waited until 6pm or so last night to announce they would be cutting the power though.  Seems like it could have been planned better.


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## sm4him (Jan 27, 2015)

I'm not in the Northeast, so can't really say whether they got THIS one right, but the local forecasters were pretty spot on for what we got, just a dusting or maybe a1/4 inch down here in the valley.

Technology has, imo, VASTLY improved our local forecasts, especially as they pertain to snow.
East TN is in a valley, between the Cumberland Mountains toward the west and the Smokies to the east. The Cumberlands can REALLY muck about with the accuracy of our forecasts here, because once a front hits the mountains, it becomes harder to predict. It may start to break up over the mountains and pretty much peter out before it ever gets as far as Knoxville, or it may break into pockets of really intense activity, meaning one area of Knoxville will get hit harder than another. I've seen times when we get six inches of snow in south Knoxville, where I am, and 12 miles down the road in West Knoxville, they get a dusting.
On the other hand, sometimes a system that is already kind of breaking up before it hits the Cumberlands will instead sort of "bunch up" and reform into something more intense than it was before.
And then there's the Smokies, which can sometimes cause a sort of "wrap around" effect on a storm for us here in the valley (especially those of us in south Knoxville, close to the mountains).

It's really a wonder they ever get it right at all here!


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## SquarePeg (Jan 27, 2015)

While I agree that the technology has improved greatly, I prefer not to see/hear/read about it on the news in such detail.  Just give me the weather forecast.  I don't need to see the models and the doppler and and sit through 20 minutes of imaging and telling me the reason it's going to be cold.  It's New England in winter, I know why it's cold out.  Just tell me what's going to happen tomorrow and what the weekend will be like and I'm good.


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## limr (Jan 27, 2015)

Well, for those folks in coastal regions, I think you're all getting just as slammed by this blizzard as they predicted you would get. For us in the NY/NJ/CT Tri-state area, the forecast was much more dire than the event itself, but honestly, it's better to be underwhelmed by a storm like this than to be overwhelmed. And so I don't mind at all that they called this one slightly off for this area.

The overall effect is that the hardest-hit areas are prepared and the rest of us are over-prepared, which is a much better place to be than caught with our pants around our ankles.

I wish you guys in Mass and Maine could have been underwhelmed as well


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## runnah (Jan 27, 2015)

I think we are in the middle of the worst of it.


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## gsgary (Jan 27, 2015)

Gary A. said:


> gsgary said:
> 
> 
> > bribrius said:
> ...


Or D750 flare


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## Braineack (Jan 27, 2015)

No. 

using tapatalk.


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## MSnowy (Jan 27, 2015)

Well the forecast was for 16-24"  where at 24" now with a few more hours of snow coming


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## SquarePeg (Jan 27, 2015)

It stopped here but it's freezing out there.  I hope you have power.  

Got 1/2 the driveway cleared and had to come back in to thaw out.  Stay warm folks!


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## bribrius (Jan 27, 2015)

gsgary said:


> Gary A. said:
> 
> 
> > gsgary said:
> ...


naaa. i have  7100  (unfortunately).   want to critique my stacking job?


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## NancyMoranG (Jan 27, 2015)

MSnowy et all...Sorry for you all. Whenever the Weather Channel is showing your town on National news as a Live Broadcast, it is NEVER good! 
Wow you are taking a wallop!
Stay warm, Nancy


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## bribrius (Jan 27, 2015)

runnah said:


> I think we are in the middle of the worst of it.
> View attachment 94230


nice photo. The wind makes cool patterns with the snow doesn't it


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## MSnowy (Jan 27, 2015)

NancyMoranG said:


> MSnowy et all...Sorry for you all. Whenever the Weather Channel is showing your town on National news as a Live Broadcast, it is NEVER good!
> Wow you are taking a wallop!
> Stay warm, Nancy



Thanks. Not to bad really. After all this is winter in New England. The Blizzard of '78 will always be my measuring stick and nothing has come close since. The real issue is people along the coast wont evacuate when advised, then call for help when it gets bad.  The media loves to work things up. This is an old picture but this is the area that the national news is showing.


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## msheffield (Feb 23, 2015)

[emoji2]


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