# Sign of Impending Apocalypse



## Ysarex (Dec 17, 2014)

Just bought gas this morning.

Joe


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## binga63 (Dec 17, 2014)

That is per gallon? ....we have been paying $1.60+ per litre here in Australia...it has only been dropped below that price during week days and back up for the weekend...


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## Ysarex (Dec 17, 2014)

binga63 said:


> That is per gallon? ....we have been paying $1.60+ per litre here in Australia...it has only been dropped below that price during week days and back up for the weekend...



Yep, that's per gallon (3.78 liters). 60 days ago it was $3.49. When I grabbed the camera to take the snap there was a tanker there filling the station. The driver saw me snap the photo and said, "Station I just came from it was $1.87."

Joe


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## MichaelHenson (Dec 17, 2014)

Hey! You're about three minutes from my house at that QT!  

Yeah, I'm loving the prices these days!


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## Ysarex (Dec 17, 2014)

MichaelHenson said:


> Hey! You're about three minutes from my house at that QT!
> 
> Yeah, I'm loving the prices these days!



I live back in the city on The Hill -- out that way running a errand.

Yeah I like paying that price too, but you know what they say... one man's meat is another man's poison. I may have to put my brother on a suicide watch. I call him BP (brother Pat). You know all that oil they've gone after in the Alberta tar sands? Brother Pat is in charge of all that and those prices mean he's losing a bazillon dollars a day right now. Good old Mitch McPiggy get's charge of the Senate in a few weeks and he's gonna finally push through that Keystone Pipeline so we can get cheap maple syrup from Canada 

Joe


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## bribrius (Dec 17, 2014)

up and down, up and down, up and down.

personally, over the last decade or so up till now paying up near or four dollars a gallon at times I am pretty happy about this. Economy wise it sure is good as well.  I will enjoy it while I can. Last report I read said all that oil fracking here in the u.s. they expect to last ten or fifteen years dropping prices until supply starts to get a little less or it becomes harder to recover. So short of the pending ecological crisis from it I think it is great I should theoretically have cheap gas, or reasonably prices gas for the next decade.

I am still jealous after reading that sign though. we aren't even near two dollars a gallon yet here I am wondering why we are paying so much more than you.


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## Ysarex (Dec 17, 2014)

bribrius said:


> up and down, up and down, up and down.
> 
> personally, over the last decade or so up till now paying up near or four dollars a gallon at times I am pretty happy about this. Economy wise it sure is good as well.  I will enjoy it while I can. Last report I read said all that oil fracking here in the u.s. they expect to last ten or fifteen years dropping prices until supply starts to get a little less or it becomes harder to recover. So short of the pending ecological crisis from it I think it is great I should theoretically have cheap gas, or reasonably prices gas for the next decade.
> 
> I am still jealous after reading that sign though. we aren't even near two dollars a gallon yet here I am wondering why we are paying so much more than you.



You live in a red state or a blue state? Across the river in Illinois they're paying 50 cents a gallon more. We had to build a new bridge across the Mississippi last year so they could all drive over here to buy gas.

Joe


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## bribrius (Dec 17, 2014)

Ysarex said:


> bribrius said:
> 
> 
> > up and down, up and down, up and down.
> ...


bluish green. the green from what it costs to live here.


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## sashbar (Dec 17, 2014)

We have  £1.15 a litre . That is 6,6 USD per gallon.


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## Fred Berg (Dec 17, 2014)

I wonder what we'll be expected to cough up at the pump once Russia has been brought to its knees?


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## weepete (Dec 17, 2014)

I'd love to pay $4 a gallon


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## sashbar (Dec 17, 2014)

Fred Berg said:


> I wonder what we'll be expected to cough up at the pump once Russia has been brought to its knees?



As they say in Russia, the West tries to bring Russia to its knees, but it stubbornly keeps lying on its back.


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## snerd (Dec 17, 2014)

OPEC is dying or already irrelevant. This is the Saudi's dumping cheap oil on the market to bankrupt the fracking industry. IMHO.


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## snowbear (Dec 17, 2014)

Unaltered photo - Jan 2013.


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## Gary A. (Dec 17, 2014)

Damn, it's $2.60 here. But we have a special blends here, one for winter and a different one for summer.


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## bribrius (Dec 17, 2014)

snerd said:


> OPEC is dying or already irrelevant. This is the Saudi's dumping cheap oil on the market to bankrupt the fracking industry. IMHO.


could be. interesting. I haven't followed it for a while. If prices stay low it might work too. I don't think the cost of recovery for fracking or tar sands corresponds well with extremely cheap oil. if it costs them seventy dollars a barrel just to make it they cant sell if for sixty dollars right?.  Or maybe the fracking is what is lowering the price. dunno really you bring up a good question...


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## bribrius (Dec 17, 2014)

weepete said:


> I'd love to pay $4 a gallon


not sure how it is there. But the u.s. is basically built around the interstate highway system and long commutes for workers, multiple vehicles per household, lots of trucking. I read once that in most other developed countries things are a little more close nit, local, different type of infrastructure and working economy so they utilize transportation a lot less (think they used Europe in their example). So higher prices may not really have the same effect where you live? in the u.s the way our economy, infrastructure is set up going all the way back to the early industrial revolution expansion and suburbias, fuel prices really effect us here. The u.s. was really built around the premise of cheap fuel, and a necessity for cheap fuel. And it isn't like anyone can rip up all the cities, roads, move businesses around or relocate people to mimic some more efficient countries in set up. It just kind of sprawled, developed, interstate highways, long commute for many, all the houses got built. It is about the least efficient you can get but is already there now set up, how it is. so we are heavily reliant on fossil fuels. Just something to think about I could be wrong. I am just going to guess, but I bet there isn't many people that commute fourty minutes to a hour to work around the world in a car. But in the u.s. that is quite common.  Just different I would guess.


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## 407370 (Dec 17, 2014)

1 Qatar Riyal (27 US cents) per liter. 3.8 Liters per gallon. 3.8 x 0.27 = REALLY CHEAP


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## Gary A. (Dec 17, 2014)

I kinda think that Obama and the West has been instrumental in exercising a strong influence on the Saudi's move to increase the availability of oil. Putin will not openly capitulate ... but everything he has strived for is now collapsing around him, including his legacy. In the future, Russia may not be as bold and arrogant as it has been in the past. This is probably putting a pretty good hurt on ISIS as well.


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## Gary A. (Dec 17, 2014)

407370 said:


> 1 Qatar Riyal (27 US cents) per liter. 3.8 Liters per gallon. 3.8 x 0.27 = REALLY CHEAP


How much does a liter of water cost?


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## Ysarex (Dec 17, 2014)

bribrius said:


> snerd said:
> 
> 
> > OPEC is dying or already irrelevant. This is the Saudi's dumping cheap oil on the market to bankrupt the fracking industry. IMHO.
> ...



Yep, there's easy oil and there's hard oil. At $50.00 barrel you can't make money with hard oil. Those Canadian tar sands and that ND fracked oil, and the oil that's a mile or more under the bottom of the Gulf is hard oil. My (B)rother (P)at is not happy right now.

The junkie found some new sources so the original dealer is slashing the price of a fix.

Joe


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## snerd (Dec 17, 2014)

We'll be under 2 bucks here within a week.


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## Gary A. (Dec 17, 2014)

snerd said:


> We'll be under 2 bucks here within a week.


Maybe it's time to move to OOOOk-lahoma, where the wind comes sweepin' down the plain, and the wavin' wheat can sure smell sweet, When the wind comes right behind the rain.


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## snerd (Dec 17, 2014)

Man, I do love our Spring thunderstorms! Of course, I've had 60mph downdrafts from them knock me right off a fence post lol!!


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## bribrius (Dec 17, 2014)

snerd said:


> We'll be under 2 bucks here within a week.


hope we are. Gas, heating oil. Electric bill somewhat derives from oil coal and wind I think. Maybe my electric bill will drop too. I could use a bill break for a change seems they all always go up. Everything really relies on fuel it is transported with it, made with it. so fuel drops everything should drop I would think...
shoot, maybe next time I fly airplane tickets will be cheaper..

I know a few years back when prices were high for fuel I was spending five k a year just  heating oil and it cost me a 140 bucks just to fill up my truck with gas.


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## Ysarex (Dec 17, 2014)

snerd said:


> We'll be under 2 bucks here within a week.



After I paid $1.95 I saw a station displaying $1.91, and then one displaying $1.79 for fill-up with car wash. $1.79 is like traveling back in time 15 years.

Joe


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## 407370 (Dec 17, 2014)

Gary A. said:


> 407370 said:
> 
> 
> > 1 Qatar Riyal (27 US cents) per liter. 3.8 Liters per gallon. 3.8 x 0.27 = REALLY CHEAP
> ...


1.5 QAR. Yes fuel is cheaper than water.
The vast majority of cars here are in the 6 - 8 cylinder bracket. around 70% of cars are 4WD SUV type. How different would that be if fuel was same PRICE as UK at around US $ 11.10 PER GALLON


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## snerd (Dec 17, 2014)

We don't understand what "heating oil" is down this way. Natural gas all the way, baby! I saw $2.09 gas today, it may not take a week to go under 2.


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## bribrius (Dec 18, 2014)

Ysarex said:


> snerd said:
> 
> 
> > We'll be under 2 bucks here within a week.
> ...


stop. you are getting me excited.


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## bribrius (Dec 18, 2014)

snerd said:


> We don't understand what "heating oil" is down this way. Natural gas all the way, baby! I saw $2.09 gas today, it may not take a week to go under 2.


sorry. heating oil is off road diesel fuel. same thing...


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## weepete (Dec 18, 2014)

bribrius said:


> weepete said:
> 
> 
> > I'd love to pay $4 a gallon
> ...



I'm in the UK mate, so average price is £1.16 per litre (around $6.60 per gallon). Admitedly our country isn't as big as the US but I do happen to be one of those people who commute 45 mins or more each day. 

We do have reasonable public transport for a lot of places but if you want to get out of town to do any activities (and I tend to like being out in the countryside) then the cost of fuel can be massive, even for the short distances involved. If, for example I wanted to go on a sea fishing boat trip (which I do occasionaly) it can cost me just as much in fuel to get there as the cost of getting on a skippered boat for the day.

Its got to the stage over here that the cost of transport can have a real impact on quality of life and what activites can cost. And thats not even thinking about the huge cost it adds on to businesses.

The most frustrating part is that its not the fuel that is the major cost, but the 60 odd percent tax that makes up the majority of the cost.


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## Warhorse (Dec 18, 2014)

$2.65 a gallon here in the beautiful northwestern lower peninsula of Michigan. Sounds high compared to a lot of you others, but it still is way cheaper than it was for a long time.


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## pgriz (Dec 18, 2014)

Oh the one hand, as a consumer, I like the low(er) gas prices.  On the other hand, as a resident of this earth, I really don't like the fact that lower prices will mean less focus on alternative sources of energy.  There's much about our accustomed way of life that is not good, either for ourselves or for our planet.  And yet, we defend it with all the effort that the addicted use to feed their habit.  Humanity doesn't like change, and yet, change we must.  The current drop in gas prices is temporary.  Let's enjoy it, but remember that this WILL change.


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## Designer (Dec 18, 2014)

sashbar said:


> As they say in Russia, the West tries to bring Russia to its knees, but it stubbornly keeps lying on its back.



Oh, Lord!  What we need here is a Leader!


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## Designer (Dec 18, 2014)

snowbear said:


> Unaltered photo - Jan 2013.


Outstanding!  

"I'll have a tank-full of regular, please.  Aw, heck, here's a quarter, you can keep the change."


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## pgriz (Dec 18, 2014)

Designer said:


> sashbar said:
> 
> 
> > As they say in Russia, the West tries to bring Russia to its knees, but it stubbornly keeps lying on its back.
> ...



A "leader" who tells the population what they want to hear, or a "leader" who makes the population face the choices they don't want to acknowledge.  We have 'way too many of the former, and precious few of the latter.


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## runnah (Dec 18, 2014)

weepete said:


> The most frustrating part is that its not the fuel that is the major cost, but the 60 odd percent tax that makes up the majority of the cost.



You guys need a revolution. Need some pointers?


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## Designer (Dec 18, 2014)

Scotland nearly went for it.


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## runnah (Dec 18, 2014)

Designer said:


> Scotland nearly went for it.


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## pgriz (Dec 18, 2014)

runnah said:


> weepete said:
> 
> 
> > The most frustrating part is that its not the fuel that is the major cost, but the 60 odd percent tax that makes up the majority of the cost.
> ...



Nah.  The problem with revolutions is that the early proponents all die early in the process.  The eventual winners have none of the motivations that the original revolutionaries had.  Which is why they end up the way they do.  The American Revolution may be an exception to this.  In general, however, the idealists make good cannon fodder for the opportunists that follow.  That's how human nature usually works.


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## weepete (Dec 18, 2014)

Parcel of rogues and all that


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## runnah (Dec 18, 2014)

weepete said:


> Parcel of rogues and all that


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## bribrius (Dec 18, 2014)

pgriz said:


> Oh the one hand, as a consumer, I like the low(er) gas prices.  On the other hand, as a resident of this earth, I really don't like the fact that lower prices will mean less focus on alternative sources of energy.  There's much about our accustomed way of life that is not good, either for ourselves or for our planet.  And yet, we defend it with all the effort that the addicted use to feed their habit.  Humanity doesn't like change, and yet, change we must.  The current drop in gas prices is temporary.  Let's enjoy it, but remember that this WILL change.


This is interesting discussion. I used to be involve with the "end of the worlder" types which seemed to do a lot of research in this regard. I think the general consensus was there would have to be a world economic crash and die off. The economy and population is just thought to be too hard to support from a ecological standpoint. smaller populations, localized communal living, natural habitat oriented with shorter life spans as nature intended more feasible for long term sustainability. With the globalization and national economies wiped away. Least I think after five years of internet hashing and research that is what was decided. while some out there look at alternate energy as a solution others look at too many people and large economies as the primary problem.


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## Designer (Dec 18, 2014)

Lowered!


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## D-B-J (Dec 18, 2014)

Damn Connecticut! It's like $2.89 here...


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## bribrius (Dec 18, 2014)

D-B-J said:


> Damn Connecticut! It's like $2.89 here...


we were at 2.74 I think last I looked...


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## snowbear (Dec 18, 2014)

Designer said:


> sashbar said:
> 
> 
> > As they say in Russia, the West tries to bring Russia to its knees, but it stubbornly keeps lying on its back.
> ...



The best leaders are those tied to the end of a fly line.


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## Designer (Dec 18, 2014)

snowbear said:


> The best leaders are those tied to the end of a fly line.


Well, there you go!  At least those leaders can be productive.


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## Didereaux (Dec 19, 2014)

I'd make a substantial bet that in 3 years or so we'll be wishing for it to drop back to $5/gal.   This is a very temporary thing, na attempt to bankrupt Russia.  A poorly thought out foreign policy...again.   Even if Russia does fall down, the instability in other nations such as Venezuela, Indonesia etc will be a heavy toll.  Merry Xmas everyone who gave themselves a 2015 gas guzzler for xmas!


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## Ysarex (Dec 29, 2014)

*UPDATE: 12-29-2014*

I just bought a full tank of gas for less than $20.00.

End of the world begins when it reaches $1.50. I heard a station down the road was at $1.69.

Joe


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## bribrius (Dec 29, 2014)

lovn it. Fuel is a major part of my budget... drop drop drop drop drop drop drop


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## bribrius (Dec 29, 2014)

Didereaux said:


> I'd make a substantial bet that in 3 years or so we'll be wishing for it to drop back to $5/gal.   This is a very temporary thing, na attempt to bankrupt Russia.  A poorly thought out foreign policy...again.   Even if Russia does fall down, the instability in other nations such as Venezuela, Indonesia etc will be a heavy toll.  Merry Xmas everyone who gave themselves a 2015 gas guzzler for xmas!


i remember when it was four dollars a gallon and i thought everyone must be on crack when a gallon of gas costs more than a gallon of milk.


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## bribrius (Jan 2, 2015)

this evening.


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## fotomonkey (Jan 2, 2015)

Paid 2.19 this morning but gasbuddy said a station down the road was 2.11

Sent from my M470BSA using Tapatalk


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## snerd (Jan 2, 2015)

Who can figure out the regional differences?! You guys getting robbed! It's $1.84 here today.


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## Ysarex (Jan 2, 2015)

snerd said:


> Who can figure out the regional differences?! You guys getting robbed! It's $1.84 here today.



It's $1.65 here. I got a call yesterday from BP. He says a lot of folks are already looking for new jobs. If this goes on much longer there's going to be hell to pay. The global oil industry needs the price stable at a bare minimum $85.00 per barrel otherwise this get's ugly.

Joe


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## bribrius (Jan 2, 2015)

snerd said:


> Who can figure out the regional differences?! You guys getting robbed! It's $1.84 here today.


northern new England. Everything up here costs more. Higher fuel taxes and longer way to truck it to the stations I would guess. Off shore on the islands they are probably still paying six bucks a gallon.


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## snerd (Jan 2, 2015)

Ysarex said:


> snerd said:
> 
> 
> > Who can figure out the regional differences?! You guys getting robbed! It's $1.84 here today.
> ...


I don't pretend to know a lot about it, but I've heard the Saudi's can ride this all the way down to $50 barrel. That will kill most U.S. production, fracking included. Interesting times indeed.


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## bribrius (Jan 2, 2015)

snerd said:


> Ysarex said:
> 
> 
> > snerd said:
> ...


Good. The less we use our oil the more we have for later. wonderful if they want to deplete their reserves for fifty dollars a barrel. Maybe we can get them all the way down to twenty five dollars a barrel. I don't know much about it either but sounds good to me! Why use our oil when we can use all theirs!


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## snerd (Jan 2, 2015)

bribrius said:


> ......... Good. The less we use our oil the more we have for later. wonderful if they want to deplete their reserves for fifty dollars a barrel. Maybe we can get them all the way down to twenty five dollars a barrel. I don't know much about it either but sounds good to me! Why use our oil when we can use all theirs!


It would get into politics, which is frowned upon here.


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## bribrius (Jan 2, 2015)

snerd said:


> bribrius said:
> 
> 
> > ......... Good. The less we use our oil the more we have for later. wonderful if they want to deplete their reserves for fifty dollars a barrel. Maybe we can get them all the way down to twenty five dollars a barrel. I don't know much about it either but sounds good to me! Why use our oil when we can use all theirs!
> ...


ha ha ha ha ha ha ha!  you can't respond. you want to be you cant. you will get in twubble. lol!   Bet it is driving you nuts too. That freedom of speech thrown out soon as you join a forum. Lifes a funny thing... LMAO  hahahahaahhahahahahahahahahhahaahahhahaha!     Bet you really wish you could say it!


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## snerd (Jan 2, 2015)

Nah, I'm on  plenty other political forums where I can vent. Kind of nice to have at least one place to relax in.


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## bribrius (Jan 2, 2015)

snerd said:


> Nah, I'm on  plenty other political forums where I can vent. Kind of nice to have at least one place to relax in.


oh. this Is the only place I am. no politics. Photography is like all I do now. And watch gas prices in which I really wish we could see under two bucks a gallon here but probably wont happen. I spent years with the end of the worlders./doomers. anarchists so I am twisted enough without adding to it... safer for me here.. taking photos... . LOL


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## photoguy99 (Jan 2, 2015)

It's funny how fast we reset what's normal. 

$50 light sweet crude is an invention of the last decade, and now it's basically an improbable and crazy lower bound.

The Saudis can pump that crap out of the ground for $10 a barrel until the cows come home.


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## bribrius (Jan 2, 2015)

photoguy99 said:


> It's funny how fast we reset what's normal.
> 
> $50 light sweet crude is an invention of the last decade, and now it's basically an improbable and crazy lower bound.
> 
> The Saudis can pump that crap out of the ground for $10 a barrel until the cows come home.


Peak oil - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
When will oil run out? | Institution of Mechanical Engineers
the question has never been If, but it has always been "when"..  while probably not for some time,  when dealing with a finite commodity and its depletion and ability for access it gives the world markets excuse to drive up the prices. And on another level it asks the question if we should revamp how we do things now, or rather wait until It is possibly to late and let the later generations deal with the downhill slope of production.  which wont be pretty and undeniably lead to catastrophic declines in economies and population sizes as even our food production Is totally reliant on cheap oil..

Personally I am totally happy at fifty dollars a barrel  saudi oil and cheap gasoline because it means the undeveloped u.s. supplies will be left for the grandkids....


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## photoguy99 (Jan 2, 2015)

I hope my grandkids think we were idiots for burning these useful long hydrocarbon chains for fuel. Energy comes from all over. It is literally falling from the sky. Long hydrocarbon chains, on the other hand.


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## WesternGuy (Jan 3, 2015)

Well, all I can say is let's enjoy it while we can.  Who knows when OPEC will decide to turn down the taps.  I bought gas for 79¢ a litre last week.  That is about less than half of what I paid for it a couple of months ago.

WesternGuy


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## snerd (Jan 3, 2015)

WesternGuy said:


> Well, all I can say is let's enjoy it while we can.  Who knows when OPEC will decide to turn down the taps.  I bought gas for 79¢ a litre last week.  That is about less than half of what I paid for it a couple of months ago.
> 
> WesternGuy


The word is, that OPEC is irrelevant. They're not players anymore. The Saudi's run the show now.


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## gsgary (Jan 3, 2015)

bribrius said:


> weepete said:
> 
> 
> > I'd love to pay $4 a gallon
> ...


A bit higher up from Pete if there are road works or land slips blocking roads there can be diversions of over 100 miles because of the lack of roads but the beautiful Scottish countryside makes up for that


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## kdthomas (Jan 3, 2015)

Haven't read the whole thread, but FWIW here in Texas I saw $1.75 ... Pretty soon they'll be paying us to take it


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## WesternGuy (Jan 3, 2015)

snerd said:


> WesternGuy said:
> 
> 
> > Well, all I can say is let's enjoy it while we can.  Who knows when OPEC will decide to turn down the taps.  I bought gas for 79¢ a litre last week.  That is about less than half of what I paid for it a couple of months ago.
> ...


With all due respect, I disagree.  The Saudi's are one of the larger components of OPEC, at  least the last time I looked.  In case you are interested, the founding members of OPEC consist of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela. In 2014 OPEC comprised twelve members: Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Venezuela.  Together, they produce over 30 billion bbls of oil per day, with Saudi Arabia producing just under 1/3rd of that.  Gabon and Indonesia were once members, but no longer belong to the organization.

You may be right in some respects that as the biggest producer within OPEC, the Saudis call the shots, but I do believe that if the others were adamant, then things might change.  After all, a lot of these countries rely on oil over $100 US/bbl to maintain their standard of living.  For example, Iran needs prices at about $139US a bbl just to balance its budget.  Nigeria and Venezuela risk complete social and economic chaos at the roughly $60US that oil is selling for today.  Venezuela's economy depends solely on the price it can get for its oil and the current levels is not what it had planned for - even at $100US, it could barely keep its economy going.  Most of this "pricing issue" resolves around the increase in US oil production and the Saudis resolve to put the "frackers" out of business - fracking is where a lot of this increase in US production is coming from.  It has been suggested that OPEC risks falling apart if the Saudis do not begin to listen to their members.  Algeria has already called for an increase in the price by shutting down production, yet there has been no action by the Saudis, at least, that is obvious to the rest of the world.  One can only speculate what would happen if OPEC falls apart - I don't even want to guess.

I trust this will clarify a few of the aspects of what is going on.

WesternGuy


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## snerd (Jan 3, 2015)

Oh, no offense taken! I know just enough to be dangerous lol!!

I just read so many stories about OPEC fading into irrelevancy,  that I don't know what to believe for sure.......

Why Opec is increasingly irrelevant
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f7857324-8534-11e4-bb63-00144feabdc0.html

Economist to truckers: ‘OPEC has become irrelevant’
Economist to truckers: ‘OPEC has become irrelevant’ - Money - Omaha.com: Breaking news and local coverage from the Omaha World-Herald

Why OPEC Could Be Dead in 10 Years
Why OPEC Could Be Dead in 10 Years

Voices: The OPEC Oil Cartel Is Irrelevant
http://www.newsweek.com/voices-opec-oil-cartel-irrelevant-92519

and on and on and on..............




Sent from my iPhone 6+ using Tapatalk Pro


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## bribrius (Jan 3, 2015)

WesternGuy said:


> snerd said:
> 
> 
> > WesternGuy said:
> ...


where did you get the info on what iran needed for price? i thought they were exporting to china this entire time far beneath that.


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## WesternGuy (Jan 3, 2015)

bribrius said:


> WesternGuy said:
> 
> 
> > snerd said:
> ...



I got the price from three different articles, written by three different authors over the past couple of months in one of our national Business Newspapers.  Where they got it from I don't know, but the figure is consistent, even CNN has been throwing this figure out..  Maybe it is a myth -  Iran takes steps to reduce economic risk of falling oil prices - Al-Monitor: the Pulse of the Middle East#.  The statement here is that Iran needs prices at $80US a barrel or above to be okay.  Regardless, they have to be hurting at $60US.   It doesn't really matter who Iran sells to.  What matters is how much they get for it and how much their "economy" depends on what they get for it.  You might want to check out this one on who wins and who loses.  Almost invariably, it is the producing nations that lose and the major consuming nations that win. Eight countries that win and lose big from oil plunge

I am not sure what price China is paying for Iran's crude, but regardless, I suspect that the Chinese can almost dictate what they will pay for it in today's market.

I hope this helps a bit.

WesternGuy


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## bribrius (Jan 3, 2015)

WesternGuy said:


> bribrius said:
> 
> 
> > WesternGuy said:
> ...


it does. thankyou..

i am still a little at a loss on the big deal over fracking. if the world uses 90 million barrels a day (could be 87 -93 guessing here) and the u.s pumps another four million per day extra is the prices really that elastic on this? As oil drops in price the u.s. fracking industry say loses most of that twenty percent hard oil recovery. so they are now only producing 4.2 extra million barrels per day. Like that is a big difference from 5 million???? There was a bigger change in the oil supply and demand during the recessions than 5 or 4.2 million barrels a day. Now while the u.s. ramps up this fracking for our peanuts few million barrels a day at the same time we have other wells running dry or becoming less easy or non recoverable. So while the u.s. is putting 5 a day on the market the worlds proven reserves and output outside and inside of the u.s. is still dwindling. so lets keep in mind that while fracking puts oil on the market other supplies are becoming unrecoverable and coming off the market. while the u.s. fracks world oil supply can drop and world demand increase. Adding barrels to the market only has a temporary fluctuation in prices. In balance off and goes up again as other barrels are pulled from the market or simpley cant be recovered at current price levels...

Lets say the are able to maintain a level of output from u.s. fracking (not hit but maintain) of 12 million a day or so which they can just not sure on if they can maintain.  The estimate for recovery to start dwindling was only ten years to start with. Given them the benefit of the doubt as some said twenty years now we can use that figure. At 12 million a day it wont be on target to make it the twenty years. The twenty years (and even the ten for that matter ) also includes the "hard" oil being recoverable. Not just hard but the more they dig, the harder it gets to recover. so toward the last five years of that twenty year mark they could be into nothing but inflation adjusted 200 dollar plus oil. They produce more quicker, they hit more and more harder oil and less recoverable at higher price point needed, quicker..  The iea puts fracking on a 2030 timeline. Basically in 2030 she starts to dry up and production starts dwindling. That is only fifteen years away.
I actually wouldnt be surprised to see this little fracking boom all dried up and gone and the trucks moved on in fifteen years or less as the iea is also assuming rising prices to make up for getting the harder and harder oil. So not even fifteen years..  Other thing about harder oil is it lowers per day production. so while easy oil is pumped at let say they max at 18 million barrels a day. When left with harder oil the rate drops significantly hypothetically 4 million barrels a day.  It isnt just the amount of oil, the pricepoint, the length of supply BUT also the rate at which it can be recovered that matters.   Recovery a million barrels a day at a four hundred dollar price point in a world that uses a hundred milion barrels a day all cheaper than yours isnt going to sell on price or in keeping up with demand.

The lower prices are good here though. At higher prices and lower world supply they would ramp up fracking production even more. The higher the price the amount they produce the quicker the easy recovery runs out AND the quicker the hard oil runs out. There are a lot of claims i read about shale YEARS ago with just insane numbers for expected reserves but the reality is the vast majority of oil will never be recovered including out of shale. The energy taken in recovery, needed pricepoint, just wont be there. you know we would be bankrupt and starving first. so we just have to go by what is actually RECOVERABLE at x dollars and in that fracking really isnt much for saudi to worry about far as oil. u.s. is more a natural gas play last i knew.

i like the fracking threat to control world oil prices i guess? But actually doing it seems really stupid as we need that for later leverage and cant pee it away in fifteen or twenty years or less?  problem with the u.s. is we already exhausted and exploited most of our oil reserves in its hay day. And we tend to think for the moment and making a buck but not so much in long term? we could pee away the little we have left really easy? where as the middle east and other parts of the world are just tapping theirs now? ((well except saudi arabia who really knows what they got left they been pumping so much for so long).  The oil producing countries (god love them for supplying my v8 and having those rich princes to pay for) do revolve their economy from their chief export, oil. which i am sure they dont like the drop in prices but also consider they also should be pulling some off the market.  i think saudi was pumping water in the wells ten years back to push out the oil so that pretty much tells you how easy theirs probably is to recovery now.. some countries like iran, iraq, libya still probably have plenty of reserves, and many not even known of yet as the technology and stability havent been in them long enough to actually map it up and ramp it up to refining at larger production capacity.  Dont know what russia has probably quite a bit. 

 Point is here that the u.s. has pretty much the LEAST and what we are recovering now we are using the highest available technology for and it still costs. What the u.s. is claiming for reserves here is ROCK. with POTENTIAL for recovery. vastly different than a nice fresh well in some country where it spews out of the ground like in the movies. It is SHALE.  But back on target here i originally stated i would rather use saudi oil at fifty dollars a barrel and this long, long post explains to a extent as to why. Quick study i just read a couple articles. Apparently the break even point on hard oil is somewhere in the sixty to seventy five dollar range so they claim i think someone is lying but okay.... so they wont be extracting that with these prices. The easier oil they can make money on from fourty dollars a barrel i guess. so there is no reason for these prices to not stay for the time being unless saudi does cut production.  In less than fifteen years though plan on spending two hundred a barrel and seven bucks a gallon in the u.s. (not inflation adjusted) as by then much of saudi will be off line and not much left here either recoverable at a fast enough rate in barrels per day. Hopefully not though maybe there will be some initiative in some of these less developed countries to put more on tap and modernize. and they wont have sanctions on them so can bring it to market.

least..... i think ...


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## WesternGuy (Jan 4, 2015)

I am also not sure why all the fuss about "fracking".  It is expensive oil, any one well doesn't produce that much and only for a relatively short period of time when compared to conventional oil, but it is the "source de jour" and that is one reason.  The other reason that it is getting so much attention is the environmental impact - whether it impacts or not and for how long and to what extent are questions that I don feel have been answered adequately.  You question why are we producing "fracking" products today.  One answer - profit!

The thing that scares me a bit is the situation that you have alluded to in your last few sentences about what is going to happen in 10 to 15 years.  Hopefully, by then they will have some pipelines built and the heavy oil sources, now being labelled as environmentally unsound or whatever, will be in full production and abled to fill any gap left by depleting overseas sources.  Regardless of what folks are saying about it, oil from the oil sands is the only source of safe oil for North America and it costs a bit more than $50 /bbl to recover.  Even Canada has to rely on oil from the oil sands for a part of their requirements.  This reliance can only increase as conventional crude starts to "dry up".

We shall see...

WesternGuy


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## bribrius (Jan 4, 2015)

photoguy99 said:


> I hope my grandkids think we were idiots for burning these useful long hydrocarbon chains for fuel. Energy comes from all over. It is literally falling from the sky. Long hydrocarbon chains, on the other hand.


we really dont have anything to replace gasoline i dont think never mind oil. diesel, and jetfuel and cng are about the only actual energy equivalents but none with the same makeup to actually replace it and all still derived from fossil fuel sources. cng the most energy per unit. hydrogen and electric sound good in theory only development, costs, wide scale implementation is problem-some. .  If i had my choice it would probably be hydrogen then electric for me personally. cng would be great but then we would just drive up cng prices.  why all the forecasts lists multiple alternative fuels replacing oil. If you pull the iea reports going years back they always have had a increase in alternative energies from varying sources to make up for fossil fuel shortfalls in production. The reason for so many alternative sources is they couldnt find one comparable source that would work on the same wide scale implementation and the way of use. Dont think there is one particular fuel we have that can replace oil in use, energy equivalent, and quantity. 

old article, some might still be applicable.
Alternative Fuels to Gasoline - Cost of Alternative Fuels - Popular Mechanics


WesternGuy said:


> I am also not sure why all the fuss about "fracking".  It is expensive oil, any one well doesn't produce that much and only for a relatively short period of time when compared to conventional oil, but it is the "source de jour" and that is one reason.  The other reason that it is getting so much attention is the environmental impact - whether it impacts or not and for how long and to what extent are questions that I don feel have been answered adequately.  You question why are we producing "fracking" products today.  One answer - profit!
> 
> The thing that scares me a bit is the situation that you have alluded to in your last few sentences about what is going to happen in 10 to 15 years.  Hopefully, by then they will have some pipelines built and the heavy oil sources, now being labelled as environmentally unsound or whatever, will be in full production and abled to fill any gap left by depleting overseas sources.  Regardless of what folks are saying about it, oil from the oil sands is the only source of safe oil for North America and it costs a bit more than $50 /bbl to recover.  Even Canada has to rely on oil from the oil sands for a part of their requirements.  This reliance can only increase as conventional crude starts to "dry up".
> 
> ...


agreed.
Canada Heavy Oil Nearing $40 Threatens Oil Sands Projects - Bloomberg

I actually like the idea of tar sands better but for barrels per day just they cant seem to produce it fast enough.. Also it is such crap I guess there is more involved to refine to make usable. Above article has it trading at a discount. You know much about that?  is the fity dollars just extraction or is there a price including the refining costs for it? Makes me wonder too the quality of what is being pulled out of shale and refining costs. Reality Is I guess beggars cant be choosers and unless we push hydrogen or hopefully a even better alternative fuel hard we are sifting sand and drilling rock.


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## WesternGuy (Jan 5, 2015)

I don't want to seem like I am "picking" on you, but I, together with a lot of others, get a bit upset when the oil sands are referred to as "tar sands".  If they really were tar sands, then we would not be able to get any oil out of them.  Tar is a mixture of hydrocarbons and free carbon which you get from a variety of organic materials by destructive distillation.  Tar can be produced from coal, wood, petroleum or peat.  The so-called "tar sands" of Alberta are actually sandstones with bitumen or heavy crude oil in the pores.  You can compare them to conventional sandstone oil reservoirs where the oil is contained within the pores of the sandstone.  In the case of the "oil sands", the organic material is just slightly heavier than conventional crude which is why  it can be mined rather than pumped from the ground.  I have worked in the oil sands and you can rest assured that if they were really only tar, then they would probably be of little use to the oil industry, although I suspect someone would find a way to use them for something.

Just had to clarify that because so many folks really do not understand what they are.

I looked at the article you provided and there are two ways to produce from the oil sands.  The first, which is the oldest process, is to mine the sandstone that the oil is in and then grind it up and remove the oil using a caustic soda process.  The resulting bitumen is then upgraded a bit and sent through a pipeline to refineries for further upgrading and refining.  The second approach is where steam is forced into the "sandstone" to heat up the bitumen so that it will flow. this "hot bitumen is then brought to the surface and goes through the same process, more or less, that the mined stuff does.  This is a bit of a gross oversimplification, but you get the idea.

Oil sand projects are capital intensive, in that they require a very large investment for the mining and processing facilities to be in place before any production can begin.  Investments up front are in the order of billions of dollars.  This is unlike a conventional well where you can drill a well for a few million dollars.  If you find oil, then you can borrow against the found oil to drill your next well and so on.  Financially this is quite different from oil sands.  One major difference is that with oil sands, you know where they are before you start, whereas with conventional oil, you may or may not find oil when you drill the well.

Hope this helps.

WesternGuy


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## bribrius (Jan 16, 2015)




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## bribrius (Jan 16, 2015)

still not even at 2 dollars.....


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## snerd (Jan 16, 2015)

$1.77 here today!


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## bribrius (Jan 16, 2015)

snerd said:


> $1.77 here today!


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