# Samsung Exec: Mirrorless To Outsell DSLRs 'In Three Years'



## snerd (Jan 16, 2015)

Anyone agree?

CES 2015 Samsung Interview: Mirrorless to outsell DSLRs 'in three years': Digital Photography Review


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## cgw (Jan 16, 2015)

snerd said:


> Anyone agree?
> 
> CES 2015 Samsung Interview: Mirrorless to outsell DSLRs 'in three years': Digital Photography Review



Reality check here. Also look at his reading of the CIPA numbers on camera sales earlier this month.

How Internet News Distorts Things | Sans Mirror &mdash; mirrorless, interchangeable lens cameras | Thom Hogan


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## KenC (Jan 16, 2015)

Who knows?  I have no reason to believe or disbelieve this, but the general pile of erroneous predictions is pretty high.


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## runnah (Jan 16, 2015)

I am just surprised that Canon/Nikon haven't even dipped their toes in to the high end mirrorless pool.

Not sure what they are waiting for.


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## Mr. Innuendo (Jan 16, 2015)

runnah said:


> I am just surprised that Canon/Nikon haven't even dipped their toes in to the high end mirrorless pool.
> 
> Not sure what they are waiting for.



The same could be said for Kodak regarding digital cameras. If they'd have followed up with the development, they would probably still be a very viable camera company today.

Personally, it won't matter to me if they outsell DSLR's. In all honesty, I'm having a difficult time seeing how it would adversely affect me. Maybe DSLR's get out-sold, but they're never going to go away.


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## runnah (Jan 16, 2015)

Mr. Innuendo said:


> runnah said:
> 
> 
> > I am just surprised that Canon/Nikon haven't even dipped their toes in to the high end mirrorless pool.
> ...



Yeah I mean I don't care one way or the other. You would just think at this point they would have had some model. Maybe they are playing chicken with each other.


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## W.Y.Photo (Jan 20, 2015)

Mr. Innuendo said:


> runnah said:
> 
> 
> > I am just surprised that Canon/Nikon haven't even dipped their toes in to the high end mirrorless pool.
> ...



In the long run though their success could limit DSLR R&D in turn reducing the potential quality of newer DSLR's in years to come. Just look at what happened with film cameras production nearly came to a hault once digital was picked up in the industry.

This is not to say that DSLR will stop being the industry standard of course... But what if it did?


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## Overread (Jan 20, 2015)

Eh that's a bit like saying compact and phone cameras will out-sell DSLRs 


Also I thought Nikon had done a little dip into this market? 
The problems as I see it are:

1) A viewfinder on a DSLR will still out-strip most video based systems for action and panning shots.

2) Even if you can build cameras good enough to overcome point 1 one also has to consider the power consumption. 

3) DSLRs are already going hybrid - most now had digitally powered screens inside them so I suspect that is what they'll do. The mirror system will remain but the viewfinder will gain more digital over-lays. Far easier to maximise and work with the mirrorbox strengths than try and rebuild it from scratch. 

4) Many mirrorless purchases (esp of the smaller systems) are not competing with DSLRs but complimenting them; as DSLR shooters want a smaller compact as well as their DSLR. So there's no worry about the sales "outstripping" because its totally separate markets. 


5) From what I can tell point 4 is only not true with those who are (typically) of an older generation who want a totally lighter setup and find the DSLR just too much struggle to use it for fun most of the time (that's not just a measure of strength; but also priorities etc....)


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## sashbar (Jan 20, 2015)

Regardless of how you look at it, a large flipping mirror inside a camera is a limiting factor, and you can not get around it in a DSLR. It is an old, outdated film era technology inside an otherwise highly sophisticated camera. I guess Canikon know it too well.


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## Overread (Jan 20, 2015)

It might be outdated but it doesn't suffer from increased battery drain - lag time - banding motions (helicopter blades bending anyone - heck DSLR sensors can't even overcome that yet). 

About the only weakness of the mirror is that it saps light for the AF sensors and that really only comes into play in very low light conditions. 

If you want to talk out-dated you could very easily argue that the vast majority of cameras are using a film-era design that is very much NOT ergonomic. Even the mirrorless are aping after DSLR similar designs even though they could go for a totally new and more erganomic design


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## sashbar (Jan 20, 2015)

Battery drain is not a problem. I switched to FUJI that shoots 300 frames instead of DSLRs 600 per battery. Big deal. I bought 3 Chinese ones for £15 - work perfectly. 
Lag and other electronic artefacts  are  just factors of the processor speed, which looks like it is doubling all the time. 
The weakness of the mirror is that it does not allow faster cont speed, all advances in DSLRs even top ones are incremental these days. For the mirrorless 10 frames per sec is not a big deal.  I am sure sports and action pros are looking at mirror less and think - give me  30 frames per sec.  AF is still lagging yes, but again it is all sheer processing speed against mechanical limitations. Stick a dedicated EVF processor in a mirrorless camera alongside the main one and Bob's you uncle.  You can not stick a second mirror into the DSLR


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## W.Y.Photo (Jan 21, 2015)

Sorry (not sorry) but Battery drain is still a huge issue with mirrorless. I can easily shoot 2000 frames with my DSLR (no battery pack) before recharging the battery.. my mirrorless will pull off maybe 4-500 if I'm lucky and not using the screen too much.


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## Big Mike (Jan 21, 2015)

I'm sure at some point, someone said that Betamax players will outsell VHS in 'three years'.


Every year I work the photographic manufacturer's trade show in my city.  For a few  years now, I've seen them pushing mirrorless camera systems.  I had a look at some of them, but when I asked how big the sensor was, and heard that it was pretty much the same as any compact camera, I walked away.   I understand that some of them do have larger sensors though.

Anyway, I teach classes on how to use 'DSLR' cameras, although we take students that have any camera that can be used in manual mode.  I have yet to have even a single student with a mirrorless camera.  Most have DSLRs and a few have DSLR-Like (Bridge) cameras, but none in the new mirrorless category.


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## sashbar (Jan 21, 2015)

W.Y.Photo said:


> Sorry (not sorry) but Battery drain is still a huge issue with mirrorless. I can easily shoot 2000 frames with my DSLR (no battery pack) before recharging the battery.. my mirrorless will pull off maybe 4-500 if I'm lucky and not using the screen too much.



Why is this a huge issue? It only takes 10 seconds to change the battery. And around $10 to buy a spare one.  With my DSLR I spend a day shooting street on one battery. With my mirrorless I sometimes need to change it once by the end of the day. It literally takes 10 seconds. Why is this a huge issue?


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## W.Y.Photo (Jan 21, 2015)

sashbar said:


> W.Y.Photo said:
> 
> 
> > Sorry (not sorry) but Battery drain is still a huge issue with mirrorless. I can easily shoot 2000 frames with my DSLR (no battery pack) before recharging the battery.. my mirrorless will pull off maybe 4-500 if I'm lucky and not using the screen too much.
> ...




Well I haven't bought any spares for my mirrorless yet so I guess there is that not to mention if someone is shooting out in the middle of nowhere for a long period they may not have the ability to recharge their battery. That's where 2000 shots per battery comes in handy. All I'm saying is that Mirrorless is still in no way superior to DSLR's overall, therefore I can't see it taking over the professional industry.

Also, who doesn't like looking through a viewfinder and seeing actual reality?


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## sashbar (Jan 21, 2015)

W.Y.Photo said:


> Well I haven't bought any spares for my mirrorless yet so I guess there is that not to mention if someone is shooting out in the middle of nowhere for a long period they may not have the ability to recharge their battery. That's where 2000 shots per battery comes in handy. All I'm saying is that Mirrorless is still in no way superior to DSLR's overall, therefore I can't see it taking over the professional industry.
> 
> Also, who doesn't like looking through a viewfinder and seeing actual reality?



We will see in 10 years.


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