# Would mirrorless will take over DSLR very soon?



## TonyUSA (Jun 28, 2019)

Would mirrorless will take over DSLR very soon like DSLR took over film?  I was planing to buy more lenses and some pro body(1DX III) next year.  Not sure if it is better to hold off and wait for Canon mirrorless pro body and lenses.   Just got 400mm 2.8 III and not sure if I made the right decision since I seen somewhere that Canon 300mm 2.8 for mirrorless will coming out sometime.  I am very sure that my 400mm price will go down like crazy when mirrorless taking over the market.

Thank you,


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## ac12 (Jul 4, 2019)

Not any time soon.
Mirrorless has a ways to go to catch up and surpass dSLR.
But this also depends on the specific shooting situations.

At a concert, the mirrorless is SILENT.  Beats all the pro dSLRs even in their "silent" mode.
You can see and adjust exposure, BEFORE you press the shutter.  This is really useful in difficult lighting situations.
Out in the bright sun, I can see the results of the shot in the EVF, whereas the glare on the back screen of my dSLR makes it useless.
Mirrorless lags in a few areas where it still needs to catch up.

Battery life STINKS, in comparison to a dSLR.  Run time is measured in HOURS, vs days on my dSLR.  

My Olympus EM1-mk1 will only run 4 HOURS, continuously on, vs. 2+ DAYS for my D7200.  And if I use the 12-100/4, it drops to a painfully short 2-1/2 HOURS.  

This means carrying spare batterIES (note the plural) is mandatory, especially on vacation.  

On my last vacation, I brought 3 batteries, and #3 was almost empty at the end the day.  That was cutting it too close.  Next time I am taking FOUR batteries.

And on vacation, you have to bring multiple chargers, to charge all the batteries you used during the day.
I brought 3 batteries and 2 chargers, and had to charge in 2 shifts (1st as soon as I got to the hotel, and 2nd shift was overnight).

Putting the camera to sleep and powering down to save power drain becomes a mandatory SOP.  But in a continuous event, that is not possible.

The mirrorless battery NEEDS to to BIGGER than a dSLR battery, to handle the extra power drain of a mirrorless camera.
Olympus learned that, the battery for the EM1-mk2 has 40% more capacity than the battery for the EM1-mk1.
The Nikon Z6 and Z7 uses the same battery as the dSLR.  I do not know what the Z6 run time is, but I think Nikon should have designed the camera to use a LARGER battery.


Viewfinder has a very slight lag, vs optical viewfinder on a dSLR.
This is important for fast sports, but not relevant for most other stuff.


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## TonyUSA (Jul 4, 2019)

Thank you, ac12.


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## dxqcanada (Jul 4, 2019)

The Market (consumers) drives the rate of change ... and I don't see Canon or Nikon users driving to their mirrorless cameras.
Users of other manufacturers, like Sony, Olympus, Fuji, have already driven their companies to mirrorless.
... so my guess is not soon, as CaNikon users tend to me the ones that will push it over the edge.


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## Derrel (Jul 4, 2019)

I do not think the change will be rapid and sudden  like it was from film to digital. But who knows. My feeling is that for action and sports the traditional  digital single lens reflex will remain at the top of the heap for at least 10 more years.


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## ronlane (Jul 4, 2019)

The rumor is that there will be a pro mirrorless coming out that will be in line with the 1Dx II next year. But even then the adapter that the EOS R works really well with the EF lenses.


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## TonyUSA (Jul 4, 2019)

Thank you everyone for your input.  I heard that pro body 1Dx III will be the last dslr and will go mirrorless after that but not really sure if it that true.


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## TonyUSA (Jul 4, 2019)

ronlane said:


> The rumor is that there will be a pro mirrorless coming out that will be in line with the 1Dx II next year.


Oop!  you beat me.  After I clicked post rely I seen your posted.


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## Dacaur (Jul 4, 2019)

For me, battery life is a biggest issue right now. On my DSLR I often look through the viewfinder with the camera off to save battery, something impossible to do with a mirrorless. The mirrorless m50 looked really tempting to me till I found my old lenses won't work. Yea there are adapters, but that's not a great solution imo.


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## Overread (Jul 4, 2019)

Given enough time I'm sure that it will all go mirrorless at some point. The interesting thing will be if DSLRs will use that full conversion to actually put some erganomics into the design of the camera. Even today where we don't have film the camera body is still basically holding a brick up to your face and doesn't really take into account things like noses. 

That said I agree with the above, the battery life isn't there yet and the viewfinder lack with mirrorless is an issue. It's not just sports, fast moving anything will create oddities like bending helicopter blades (for example). So there's still good reason that a reflective mirror beats video. But that limit is coming down all the time and with DSLRs getting more video heavy I'm sure we'll start to see them improve in leaps and bounds, esp as processor technology advances.

Mirrorless is a bit of the "new hotness" in many ways but I don't see it replacing the regular DSLR for a good while. Even if the mirrorless gets to a point where its sales beat the DSLR we are still likely talking DSLR sales into the millions; just not with the same level of insane market growth they've enjoyed in previous years. And to be honest any camera manufacturer knew that, even without mirrorless, the DSLR was eventually going to reach a saturation point in the market and dwindle. Even with the marketing and more affordable prices of today, its still a niche item - esp with mobile phones and the like eating up a good chunk of the casual market.


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## Overread (Jul 4, 2019)

Dacaur said:


> For me, battery life is a biggest issue right now. On my DSLR I often look through the viewfinder with the camera off to save battery, something impossible to do with a mirrorless. The mirrorless m50 looked really tempting to me till I found my old lenses won't work. Yea there are adapters, but that's not a great solution imo.



Honestly I've never done that in order to save battery life, I'd rather keep the camera on so I don't have to wait for it to power up and go through its start up. In fact the small power saving you likely get away with is likely not worth the hassle of missing shots because it wasn't ready. I'd ust bolt a battery grip onto the camera for two batteries and be pretty much save to shoot all day unless in the bitter cold (battery life diminishes)


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## ac12 (Jul 4, 2019)

Dacaur said:


> . . .  The mirrorless m50 looked really tempting to me till I found my old lenses won't work. Yea there are adapters, but that's not a great solution imo.



Same problem Nikon has with their Z cameras.  Have to use the FTZ adapter to use F mount lenses, until the Z lens landscape fleshes in, which will take about 4-5 years.
Same problem Canon has with the R cameras.  They have to use an EF to R adapter, to use the EF lenses, until the R lens landscape fleshes in.

The adapter is a good solution for two reasons.
One, it allows you to use the dSLR lenses on the mirrorless, while the mirrorless landscape is being fleshed in.
Two, it eases/reduces your transition cost, as you can use your dSLR lenses on the mirrorless.  So you can replace dSLR lenses with mirrorless lenses gradually over time, rather than having to replace ALL the lenses AT ONCE.

Where it become a problem is if you are switching systems.  Such as have dSLR brand X and get a Canon M50, and there is no adapter that will let you use your brand X lens on the M50.  Then you have to buy EF lenses and the EF to M adapter, because Canon does not be the native EF-M lens that you want.  Same with the Canon R and Nikon Z cameras.

If you want native Nikon or Canon mirrorless lenses, you have to be prepared to wait up to 5 years or more, until the mirrorless lens landscape is fleshed in, or the lens you want is produced.

Or, you buy into a mature system that has the native lenses.


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## zombiesniper (Jul 5, 2019)

The answer in short is no not very soon.

Now for the long answer.
If we brake down the basics of the two types of cameras there really is only two differences.

1, no mirror

2, an EVF instead of an optical viewfinder.


Based on just this all that Nikon or Canon would have to do to their D5 or 1Dx is to remove the mirror and add an EVF with a the appropriate video board.

So could it be done. Yes and they have the tech to do it today.

Why don't they?
Nobody is going to sacrifice battery life and the inherent $ loss to buy this new camera when it would provide absolutely no benefit to the final product. So if they made the D6 or 1DX/M no body would buy them since mirrorless is not a selling feature to someone who cares about the final product.

Now if they were to combine the new mirrorless camera with a new sensor, better af, AND NOT CHANGE THE LENS MOUNT! They might have a chance.

This also brings up another problem. If you have $10k-$30k or more in lenses and in order to upgrade your camera body you also have to upgrade all of your lenses........why not look at other brands at this point to see what best suits your needs?
I know people will say "but they have adapters!" If I have to use an adapter then again why look at other companies and use their adapter?


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## Jeff15 (Jul 5, 2019)

TonyUSA said:


> Would mirrorless will take over DSLR very soon



YES


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## petrochemist (Jul 5, 2019)

TonyUSA said:


> Would mirrorless will take over DSLR very soon like DSLR took over film?  I was planing to buy more lenses and some pro body(1DX III) next year.  Not sure if it is better to hold off and wait for Canon mirrorless pro body and lenses.   Just got 400mm 2.8 III and not sure if I made the right decision since I seen somewhere that Canon 300mm 2.8 for mirrorless will coming out sometime.  I am very sure that my 400mm price will go down like crazy when mirrorless taking over the market.
> 
> Thank you,


For some photographers mirrorless took over years ago.
There are some roles where mirrorless models are vastly superior to DSLRs, many roles they perform much the same, and a few roles where DSLRs are definitely superior.


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## TonyUSA (Jul 6, 2019)

Thank you, everyone.


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## beagle100 (Jul 7, 2019)

TonyUSA said:


> Thank you, everyone.




U R welcome
*www.flickr.com/photos/mmirrorless*


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## Grandpa Ron (Oct 15, 2019)

Mirror less is not new, I have a decades old Olympus C740 with a video view finder. I has a then stated of the art 3.2 megapixel sensor and 10 x zoom. There is no detectable mirror movement, noise or vibration but the video view finder does go blank during the exposure. It does not have inter-changeable lenses.

If mirror less was such a great boon to the overall camera market, I would have thought the industry would have been marketing them years ago.

My personal opinion is, with the advent of phone cameras, the number of hobbyist camera users has dropped so the market is leaning towards the Pro and serious amateurs who are willing to spend a few more bucks, if they decide they need the advantages of mirror less.   My choice is battery life but I do not need quiet or 100% image time.

Also considering the human eye blink is said to between 1/10 and 3/10 of a second and the eye blinks every 15 seconds. I doubt that in my photographic situations, I would even notice the difference. Other photographer's setting may need it.   

To answer the OPs question, I believe that the majority of photographer will choose battery life. So until super batteries become available, DSLRs will the predominant choice.


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## ac12 (Oct 16, 2019)

Grandpa Ron said:


> To answer the OPs question, I believe that the majority of photographer will choose battery life. So until super batteries become available, DSLRs will the predominant choice.



Battery life has to be at least reasonable.
But reasonable depends on how the camera is used.

To back up your statement, my D7200 will easily go a full weekend on a single charge, continuous ON for 6+ hours each day, and shooting about 800+ shots.
But my mirrorless Olympus EM1-mk1 will only last 4 hours, continuous ON.
This 4 hour run time drops to 2-1/2 hours if I use the Sync-IS lens.  

I have 1 primary and 1 spare battery for my D7200.  But I have never used the spare battery, cuz I have never drained the primary battery.
On the other hand, I have used THREE batteries in a 12 hour day on the EM1-mk1.  I now have FOUR batteries + 1 spare (total of FIVE), to safely get me though a hard day of shooting.


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## RVT1K (Oct 16, 2019)

Considering that there are still film cameras and turntables for vinyl records, I would say no.


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## Original katomi (Oct 16, 2019)

For me the lack of battery life and the shutter lag puts me off 
I have tried and gave up and went back to Dslr


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## Derrel (Oct 16, 2019)

Nothing quite as satisfying as needing 5 batteries to make it through a single football game. I am of course referring to dPreview's article on shooting a single Seahawks football game with a Sony mirrorless


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## ac12 (Oct 17, 2019)

Derrel said:


> Nothing quite as satisfying as needing 5 batteries to make it through a single football game. I am of course referring to dPreview's article on shooting a single Seahawks football game with a Sony mirrorless



I shot a graduation with my EM1-mk1, and the battery died JUST before the tassel turn.  Boy was I pissed.
That 2-1/2 hour run time goes by FAST.

I could not find that article.
I was interested in the details of that shoot, as 5 batteries for a single FB game does not sound right.


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## Derrel (Oct 18, 2019)

This article was written several years ago and they were using a Sony A7 something and shooting quite a bit. They exhausted four full batteries and before the end of the game they inserted the fifth and final battery. At the time the Sony A7 models were known as real battery Hogs. As I understand it this has somewhat been mitigated. We should probably keep in mind to that they were shooting a lot come up as in every play over about a three and a half hour NFL football game.

The article was probably written four years ago, if my memory serves me correctly.


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## ac12 (Oct 18, 2019)

Derrel said:


> This article was written several years ago and they were using a Sony A7 something and shooting quite a bit. They exhausted four full batteries and before the end of the game they inserted the fifth and final battery. At the time the Sony A7 models were known as real battery Hogs. As I understand it this has somewhat been mitigated. We should probably keep in mind to that they were shooting a lot come up as in every play over about a three and a half hour NFL football game.
> 
> The article was probably written four years ago, if my memory serves me correctly.



Ah OK.  The camera itself was known to be a battery hog.
Performance over battery life.  And they probably used a low capacity battery, because it was physically small, so that the camera could be made small.

The other is the lens.  How much power does the lens draw from the camera.
That is the problem with the Olympus 12-100/4 lens.  With the lens stabilizer on, that lens sucks battery power.  It cuts my battery life by almost 40%.

The solution is in 3 parts, which has to be balanced.

Reduce the power consumption of the camera.
Reduce the power consumption of the lens.
Use a LARGER capacity battery.
#1 - But adding more features to the camera, and a faster processor, both use more power.
#2 - Olympus' new EM5-mk3 has a similar size battery as my EM1-mk1.  Even if they reduced the power consumption of the camera, IF I put the power sucking 12-100 lens on the EM5-mk3, the battery life would take about a 40% hit, just from extra power that the lens takes.  Hopefully the next generation of that lens will use less power.
#3 - Olympus' solution on the EM1-mk2 was a battery with 40% more capacity.


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## petrochemist (Oct 18, 2019)

Grandpa Ron said:


> Mirror less is not new, I have a decades old Olympus C740 with a video view finder. I has a then stated of the art 3.2 megapixel sensor and 10 x zoom. There is no detectable mirror movement, noise or vibration but the video view finder does go blank during the exposure. It does not have inter-changeable lenses.



The term mirrorless has come to mean a interchangeable lens camera with the sensor used for a viewfinder. So your C740 is not classed as mirrorless, any more than a simple box camera is. The first camera meeting this description was I believe the Panasonic G1 which was released about a decade ago. So not new but not as old as you are making out. Electronic viewfinders have been around for much longer, as have interchangeable lenses but the combination is what makes the class up. 

Viewfinder delay was noticeable with the earlier models, but with recent models is extremely hard to spot.

I've been shooting mainly mirrorless models for the last 5 years, their advantages for non action shooting have far outweighed the poorer battery life, changing a battery before it runs right down is easy. I can only remember one occasion when the battery (a cheap 3rd party model) died unexpectedly. I thought I'd failed to get a shot of the heron taking off (certainly missed the chance for some close in flight shots). On fitting a spare battery I found I had got the initial take of shot safely saved on the card - framing was a little tighter than I'd have liked but that's not the batteries fault


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## Michael Smith 12 (Nov 5, 2019)

There are signs pointing to an increase in the mirrorless market. Not only are there new customers buying mirrorless cameras, but there is also a fair amount of switching going on. DSLR sales have dropped consistently over the past few years, whereas the mirrorless market is increasing slowly. Even Canon and Nikon have moved significant resources to the research, production and marketing of mirrorless cameras. Today's mirrorless cameras perform almost as well as DSLRs, better in some areas and worse in some other areas. All these factors point to the eventual dominance of mirrorless cameras.
However due to the huge amount of customers who are sticking on to their DSLRs, it is safe to say that it will take quite a while.


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## Peeb (Nov 5, 2019)

Mirrorless has already taken over DSLR in my house.   

Nikon Z6 shooter now, and loving it.  YMMV, but I haven't had any particular issues with battery life.  I don't get the run time I got with my D610 or D7200 but it is totally usable.  I can shoot several hundred stills on a battery.


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## Original katomi (Nov 5, 2019)

Having spent a huge amount of time, effort, GBP, gifts from b day,Christmas and anniversary to get my canon DSLR set up to the current point. There is no way that I can change. My system suits what I do. I have various cameras that are not DSLR and either have electric viewfinder of view on screen at the back but like the canon they are used for a reason. Eg camera trap/a night vision camera. Yep I know I am a fossil, I realised that when I found out that PS meant photoshop or a game concept and not a post script on a letter. And even more frightening that lol means laughter out loud or something and not 
lens over leg, on tripods,


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## petrochemist (Nov 5, 2019)

Original katomi said:


> I realised that when I found out that PS meant photoshop or a game concept and not a post script on a letter. And even more frightening that lol means laughter out loud or something and not
> lens over leg, on tripods,


I'm afraid there are a great many more abbreviations with multiple meanings - MF for manual focus and Medium Format is one that catches me out regularly.

WRT your existing Canon hardware there are adapters that will allow your lenses to work (with AF etc) on practically any mirrorless body.
Not suggesting you should change to mirrorless now - but it may be the best option by the time your current body needs a replacement.


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## Original katomi (Nov 5, 2019)

That’s interesting, did not know current lenses could be used albeit via adapter 
Thanks will rem that


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## ac12 (Nov 5, 2019)

Original katomi said:


> That’s interesting, did not know current lenses could be used albeit via adapter
> Thanks will rem that



NOT ALL dSLR lenses will work with ALL mirrorless bodies.
You have to look at your specific combination, to see if it is supported.
Example:  As of when I did my research, there were NO adapters that would provide communication between any Nikon lens and a m4/3 camera.  
This means that the Nikon lens is _auto-nothing_, on a m4/3 camera; no auto focus, no aperture control from the camera, no VR, no auto opening of the aperture, no nothing.  You are essentially back to pre-1950s lens control.​


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## petrochemist (Nov 6, 2019)

ac12 said:


> NOT ALL dSLR lenses will work with ALL mirrorless bodies.
> You have to look at your specific combination, to see if it is supported.
> Example:  As of when I did my research, there were NO adapters that would provide communication between any Nikon lens and a m4/3 camera.
> This means that the Nikon lens is _auto-nothing_, on a m4/3 camera; no auto focus, no aperture control from the camera, no VR, no auto opening of the aperture, no nothing.  You are essentially back to pre-1950s lens control.​


Full manual operation (pre 60's) is AFAIK achievable with all DSLR lenses & nearly all SLR lenses (Minolta's Vectris mount is one of those that are not practical, due to being very low volume & fully electronic).
Try researching again, AF adapters for Nikon are starting to appear now. I think they're still first generation so not reliable but it's coming.
The OP uses Canon's EOS lenses which are I think supported by every mirrorless system other than Pentax's K-01 (which uses a SLR mount)


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## Original katomi (Nov 6, 2019)

I imagen that by the time I am ready/forced to change that there will
A. No choice and have to go to current design whatever that is
B. There will be universal adapters
C. I will have won the big lottery and  will buy a compleat new system prob med format.....not lightly to happen ....
Who know the next change in photography will be an implant in the eye that takes images and stores them
The eyeball mk2.2


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## AlanKlein (Nov 6, 2019)

Does anyone think that politicians and other celebrities will soon demand silent shooting at events?  Right now, all you hear are the shutters clicking.


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## petrochemist (Nov 6, 2019)

AlanKlein said:


> Does anyone think that politicians and other celebrities will soon demand silent shooting at events?  Right now, all you hear are the shutters clicking.


I'd say the shutters generally give a better message.


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## Braineack (Nov 6, 2019)

AlanKlein said:


> Does anyone think that politicians and other celebrities will soon demand silent shooting at events?  Right now, all you hear are the shutters clicking.



The difference in sound between the D800 and D810 is substantial.  I'm assuming because of the electronic front curtain.


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## ac12 (Nov 6, 2019)

AlanKlein said:


> Does anyone think that politicians and other celebrities will soon demand silent shooting at events?  Right now, all you hear are the shutters clicking.



There are few places that they can force the issue.
The White House is one, because they control the access.  Play by the rules, or you don't get access.
Other than the WH, the politicians and celebrities can demand all they want, but the they won't get it.  They would have to screen all the cameras, by someone who knew what they were looking at.  
And when they put still and video cameras in the same place, the video cameras will pick up the shutter noise.


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## beagle100 (Nov 16, 2019)

ac12 said:


> AlanKlein said:
> 
> 
> > Does anyone think that politicians and other celebrities will soon demand silent shooting at events?  Right now, all you hear are the shutters clicking.
> ...



most of the new mirrorless camera models now have silent electronic shutters
*www.flickr.com/photos/mmirrorless*


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## ac12 (Nov 16, 2019)

beagle100 said:


> ac12 said:
> 
> 
> > AlanKlein said:
> ...



Does not matter.

There are probably a LOT more dSLRs in use by the press than mirrorless.
It will take years for the dSLRs to be replaced by mirrorless.

Unless you can control access, like the WH, where you can TELL the press that they will be be allowed access only if they use a "silent shutter" camera, it won't work.  And the teeth is to stop the press conference, eject the photographer, revoke their press access, and even revoke the press access of their news agency.  They follow the rules, or else they loose access.

When press of various news agencies and organizations come to a city, state, Hollywood or other press conference or event, how do you propose to control them?
Is the organization that wants publicity going to turn away the press?

Do you really expect a "screener" looking at cameras to know a mirrorless from a dSLR.
It may come down to "show me." "Turn on the camera and press the shutter."
It will be like TSA screening, with a massive log jam at the photographer's screening table.​Or will they stop the press conference, and kick out the photographers with the noisy cameras.
And will those photographers then complain about violation of "freedom of the press."


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## beagle100 (Nov 17, 2019)

the "takeover" is almost complete

*www.flickr.com/photos/mmirrorless*


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## ac12 (Nov 17, 2019)

beagle100 said:


> the "takeover" is almost complete
> 
> *www.flickr.com/photos/mmirrorless*



So you think there will be NO MORE shutter/mirror sounds at ANY press conferences, sporting events, etc.

Well, it AIN'T complete.  
For every mirrorless camera that I see, I see (or hear) at least five dSLRs.
And I have yet to see a mirrorless for sale in Costco.


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## Soocom1 (Nov 18, 2019)

This is akin to the old V8 engine issues.
Mirrorless has some extremely high advantages over SLR's in general mostly and I think its deliberately so, the fact that you can mount almost any modern lens to one and have it work.
This is because of the extremely short focal distance and mounting distance where almost all slr lenses run the 44mm distance, every adapter is designed for the longer lens focal distance and thus almost all such can be mounted.
The only real exception are the shutter plan lenses like the Hassy's.

IMO SLR's are not long for the world. Given that you can mount any 35mm lens on any of the new Hassy/Fuji Mirrorless and not have vignetting is a huge plus.

As for the press corps issue, try nature photography, sporting events, WEDDINGS!!!

I see nothing but advantages witht eh only real disadvantage of the viewfinder issue.


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## ac12 (Nov 18, 2019)

Soocom1 said:


> This is akin to the old V8 engine issues.
> Mirrorless has some extremely high advantages over SLR's in general mostly and I think its deliberately so, the fact that you can mount almost any modern lens to one and have it work.
> . . .
> 
> ...



". . . you can mount almost any modern lens to one and have it work"
One glaring exception, for me, you CANNOT use a current Nikon lens on a micro 4/3 camera (Olympus and Panasonic).
Last I looked, there were NO adapter that allowed communication between the lens and camera.
That means the lens is auto NOTHING; no auto focus, no ability to control the aperture from the camera, no VR, no auto opening aperture, and with the AF-P lens no ability to manually focus the lens (because the AF-P is focus-by-wire).
It is easier for me to use a 1970s manual lens on the Olympus, than a modern lens.
So while some combos work, other combos do NOT work.

There is another major issue, a comparatively short battery life, compared to a dSLR.
Depending on the camera/lens combo, it can be painfully short.  2-1/2 hours for one of my combinations, and even shorter for other camera/lens combos (from reviews).  Yes, I can carry and do carry spare batteries, but for that one camera lens combo, I have to carry FIVE batteries, for a full day of shooting.  And I have to pre-plan when to change batteries, so I don't go 'empty' in the middle of a shoot, which has happened.   grrrrr 
The basic problem is a mirrorless uses MORE power than a dSLR, but in order to keep the camera small, they did not use a LARGER battery.

Having said this.
#1, I just don't use other lens on my Olympus, problem solved.
#2, With technology advances, the power consumption might drop.  But they could also put more power sucking stuff into the camera, off-setting the gain.  
And the camera mfgs may finally bite the bullet and put larger batteries into the cameras.


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## Soocom1 (Nov 18, 2019)

ac12 said:


> Soocom1 said:
> 
> 
> > This is akin to the old V8 engine issues.
> ...




I know there are always exceptions to the rule. 
Fuji makes an adapter for the EOS lenses to communicate but batt. life will obviously be short. 

But that's the current crop of things. 
In time it may change. 

Again, IMO with the new mirrorless hassy/Fuji MF cameras that allow the use of 35mm lenses, once I get that kind of cash to buy one, all bets are off.


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## shadowlands (Nov 19, 2019)

Peeb said:


> Mirrorless has already taken over DSLR in my house.
> 
> Nikon Z6 shooter now, and loving it.  YMMV, but I haven't had any particular issues with battery life.  I don't get the run time I got with my D610 or D7200 but it is totally usable.  I can shoot several hundred stills on a battery.


 Agreed. I sold my 2.8 zooms and my former DF and D800 when I got the Z6. No looking back for me. Personal preference, you could say. I'm in love. Love the EVF and silent option.


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## daveo228i (Nov 25, 2019)

Most politicians and celebrities want as much photo exposure as possible. Keeping their faces in front of the public is what they’re all about.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Pro


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## beagle100 (Nov 30, 2019)

ac12 said:


> beagle100 said:
> 
> 
> > the "takeover" is almost complete
> ...



we will probably see MORE press conferences .....  but the revolution / evolution is HERE


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## ac12 (Jan 6, 2020)

Looks like Canon is still betting on the dSLR for the high end pros.
I just got a sales announcement of the new Canon 1DX-Mark 3, at a whopping $6,500.


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## TonyUSA (Jan 6, 2020)

ac12 said:


> Looks like Canon is still betting on the dSLR for the high end pros.
> I just got a sales announcement of the new Canon 1DX-Mark 3, at a whopping $6,500.



That is my next one.  Sold mine 5D III last month and going to get this one.


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## Overread (Jan 7, 2020)

I still want to know what Canon is going to do with the mid/high end 1.6 crop market. The 7DII has not been updated with a III and it seems that rumour suggests there won't be a III. I really hope it just means we get new model line at the mid-high end iwth weather sealing and top end performance.


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## malling (Jan 7, 2020)

I have read through allot of post in this thread stating that it will take a long time, I’m not so sure about that. Sony has already taken the lead role in Japan on the FF market holding over 38% of market shares, it’s not the only market where that has happened. Yes dSLR is still the most sold on a global scale, but it’s dropping fast and it won’t take 10 years before Mirrorless FF cameras will be the dominant force, in fact with annual growth pr. Year then a very realistic scenario is closer to 5 years.

Sony has close to 25% global market shares, making them bigger than Nikon. And while the latter sees sales drop on a rapid scale, Sony is on the rise, at the time it very much look like they will be the biggest brand if this trend continues the next few years. Personally a 5 year horizon is realistic for Mirrorless to be the dominant force in gross unit sales. Especially as Canon and Nikon has entered the development and market. 

However the overall camera market is suffering badly, Sony is one of the few sparks in the dark, and only Mirrorless somwhat holds its sales. This is why dSLR will die eventually, these products simply do not hold sales, Nikon had a drop of 26% in unit sales on the APS-C market, 14% on the FF market and 25% on fixed lens market. Canon only had a somewhat positive numbers on unit sales on the FF market, largely thanks to Mirrorless.

Last but not least Mirrorless FF encounter for approximately 60% of the Japanese FF market. This clearly indicate where it will end.


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## ronlane (Jan 8, 2020)

@malling, it will take a while to get the Mirrorless to the level of the 1Dx and the D5/6 for Professional sports and journalism. That being said, with the features in the 1Dx mark III, Canon appears to be heading in that direction. Probably not there yet but I could see the next iteration of the 1dx line being a mirrorless camera. When will that be? Most likely for the 2024 Olympic games. Make no mistake about it, this camera came out for that purpose this summer. 

I look forward to seeing images with this camera and eventually owning one or two of them. But I am also excited about the possibilities of a  Professional Mirrorless body as well. (I don't want to know what the R mount 300mm f/2.8 or 400mm f/2.8 is going to cost)


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## Soocom1 (Jan 8, 2020)

So some historical aspects here: 
In the 1970's the "top End" SLR was the F.  Canon followed along with many others. 

The design was practical and efficient for film and essentially remained unchanged even up to today in general shape with the obvious exceptions of the grip and plastic "ergonomic bodies". 

form follows function and the new mirrorless looks more akin tot he early 35mms of the 1950's. 

As pointed out so many times in the past few weeks, disruptions in systems is normal. photography is no different. 
there will be a call eventually for high end photography again as the iPhone fad (yes a fad) fades as people start to see the difference between their snapshots and pro set photo. It WILL happen! 

But there will also be changes in the approach to photography and the means to make it. 
form will follow function and until that point is reached, the call in the market is where the money is, and that at this point in time are cell phones.


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## ac12 (Jan 8, 2020)

Overread said:


> I still want to know what Canon is going to do with the mid/high end 1.6 crop market. The 7DII has not been updated with a III and it seems that rumour suggests there won't be a III. I really hope it just means we get new model line at the mid-high end iwth weather sealing and top end performance.



I thought the 90D was the high end crop camera.
A scaling back/consolidation of the Canon APS-C dSLR line, in anticipation of migrating to the M50 et.al.


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## Soocom1 (Jan 8, 2020)

ac12 said:


> Overread said:
> 
> 
> > I still want to know what Canon is going to do with the mid/high end 1.6 crop market. The 7DII has not been updated with a III and it seems that rumour suggests there won't be a III. I really hope it just means we get new model line at the mid-high end iwth weather sealing and top end performance.
> ...


IMO, this is the swan song of DSLRs. 

Mirrorless is taking over, and moreover, because digital never really needed a shutter or mirror, its a logical progression.


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## Jeff15 (Jan 8, 2020)

For those of us who photography is just a hobby, there is no point lugging around heavy DSLR gear anymore.


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## Derrel (Jan 8, 2020)

The newly-announced Nikon D780 has introduced a hybrid type of focusing which takes a lot of the technology from the Z series mirrorless models and offers users two types of focusing both phase-detect and contrast detect and two types of viewing, so it will be interesting to see if this concept gains traction. If it does gain traction, it might be longer before manufacturers manage to migrate their user base to mirrorless. It's possible that we will see something as simple as a mirror flip up setting which will in effect turn a DSLR into a "mirrorless" Live View Camera.


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## Braineack (Jan 8, 2020)

Derrel said:


> The newly-announced Nikon D780 has introduced a hybrid type of focusing which takes a lot of the technology from the Z series mirrorless models and offers users two types of focusing both phase-detect and contrast detect and two types of viewing, so it will be interesting to see if this concept gains traction. If it does gain traction, it might be longer before manufacturers manage to migrate their user base to mirrorless. It's possible that we will see something as simple as a mirror flip up setting which will in effect turn a DSLR into a "mirrorless" Live View Camera.



Canon has already been doing this with the much better dual pixel af in a bunch of models including the new 1d, 5d and even the latest rebel -- Nikon is behind the curve here.

Canon is the go-to for video, so it's nice to see Nikon playing catch up to video shooters.


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## Derrel (Jan 8, 2020)

Unfortunately for Canon their dual pixel AF system has had a lot of problems. It remains to be seen how the Nikon AF system works in the real world, but I expect that we will be seeing the reports within a week from the leading websites. It's one thing to be first, and quite another thing to enter the market later but better. Samsung is a good example of this. For almost three decades now their goal has to been to let others open up Market segments, and then to see how the competitors have either failed or succeeded and to make a better product. A good example would be the iPhone and the Samsung Galaxy series. Apple was first, and Samsung waited quite a while, but entered the market with an excellent line of products


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## smoke665 (Jan 8, 2020)

In a few days it will be 7 months since the OP started this thread and DSLR continues. Will be interesting to check out this thread a year from now.


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## Braineack (Jan 8, 2020)

I know Sony went dual pixel and everyone is raving about it, and thiers blows away Canons apparently


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## Derrel (Jan 8, 2020)

Braineack said:


> I know Sony went dual pixel and everyone is raving about it, and thiers blows away Canons apparently



There is quite a lot of advantage to making the second or third offering in a product category. It is easy when you are last to Market and have a particular product or technology that your engineering department is trying to better.

I am interested to see how well Nikon's new live view focusing with wide area coverage is received, and also I am interested in seeing how well their eye detect autofocus works, as well as their adoption of the D5's autofocusing algorithm, and their adoption of the Nikon D850 rear screen.

A few posts up cgw called this camera a member of the prosumer category. I don't think that is accurate, as I look at the prosumer as the person who must have the newest and the latest and greatest and chases features. My experience has shown that the Nikon D750 was a very very popular camera with wedding and social photographers, and I think that this is where the D780 will find its greatest market share. I think that the prosumer will typically buy whatever crap Sony dishes out, and they will buy it as soon as it hits the market. The prosumer has to have bragging rights of owning the latest and the greatest, and the Nikon D750 lasted from 2014 until today so five years or six years, depending on how you count the years.

I think the prosumer is much more likely a buyer for a Nikon Z6 or Z7 but I think this camera is aimed at hobbyists and also at professional wedding shooters, as well as those who shoot maternity, engagement, and family photography.


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## Braineack (Jan 9, 2020)

Yeah, this is still going to be a VERY popular wedding camera.  And now with its release I'll probably trade my D610 in for a D750 as a backup once the prices drop.


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## TWX (Jan 9, 2020)

ac12 said:


> Overread said:
> 
> 
> > I still want to know what Canon is going to do with the mid/high end 1.6 crop market. The 7DII has not been updated with a III and it seems that rumour suggests there won't be a III. I really hope it just means we get new model line at the mid-high end iwth weather sealing and top end performance.
> ...



Based on some other discussion somewhere I looked up the stats on the 7D-II vs the 90D.  The 7D-II still has a few features either not available in the 90D or better than the 90D, at least on paper.

Take this with a grain of salt, I've not used either camera.  For all I know those features were superfluous.



ac12 said:


> Looks like Canon is still betting on the dSLR for the high end pros.
> I just got a sales announcement of the new Canon 1DX-Mark 3, at a whopping $6,500.



I can see a couple of reasons for this.  First, the target market for this camera consists largely of existing professional photographers.  Those professionls have been shooting with SLRs and DSLRs and are both accustomed to the single lens reflex format generally, and possibly familiar with the 1Dx or 1DX-II in particular, such that upgrading to the newest of a familiar line with basically the same body dimensions and controls is entirely justified.  Second, if Canon does not feel that their live-view/EVF technology is real-time enough for sports photography, they're better off waiting until they're sure not to alienate the professionals by supplying equipment that leads to missing the shot due to screen lag.

Something to bear in mind is that neither DSLR nor mirrorless developments happen in secrecy to each other, improvements in one type can inform for improvements in the other.  It's possible that we could even see something of a hybrid- imagine a pro camera possessing both a mirror for a sports-shooter that wants it, but also integrates an EVF, perhaps by some mechanical shift inside of the viewfinder housing, such that the same eyepiece on the back can serve double-duty.  That type of arrangement would still require EF-mount lenses, but it's not like there's a dearth of options there.  For a professional with a lens measuring a couple feet in length, the extra inch of flange distance in the camera body probably doesn't amount to very much.

Plus it makes sense to let the consumer camera market work out the bugs before migrating a technology to the pro cameras.


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## malling (Jan 9, 2020)

ronlane said:


> @malling, it will take a while to get the Mirrorless to the level of the 1Dx and the D5/6 for Professional sports and journalism. That being said, with the features in the 1Dx mark III, Canon appears to be heading in that direction. Probably not there yet but I could see the next iteration of the 1dx line being a mirrorless camera. When will that be? Most likely for the 2024 Olympic games. Make no mistake about it, this camera came out for that purpose this summer.
> 
> I look forward to seeing images with this camera and eventually owning one or two of them. But I am also excited about the possibilities of a  Professional Mirrorless body as well. (I don't want to know what the R mount 300mm f/2.8 or 400mm f/2.8 is going to cost)



I agree that for the top level of dSLR or for Sports photography there is a way to go before Mirrorless reach that level. But those model count for a very small fraction of the total market. I’m pretty sure Mirrorless will have the largest stake on the market within very few years, however there will still be pockets where dSLR will hold its ground, for how long it’s hard to say. One of the biggest problems for the new generation of Mirrorless is still battery runtime, but it has actually more to due with lack of battery development then power consumption of the camera itself. We encounter the exact same problem with Cars, Smartphones etc. battery technology that we use to day hasn’t kept up with the overall technology. 

Yeah the next 5 years might be one of the more interesting times to live in technology speaking.


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## Overread (Jan 9, 2020)

Canon might be releasing more for their mirrorless brand, but lets not forget that they've a huge library of EF lenses for their regular DSLRs. Those lenses are already top of their game and chances are that updates for them don't generate huge sales because those who already have them are unlikely to upgrade so quickly when the existing models are already very top grade. The mirrorless market is newer and so there's more scope to add specific brand lenses and products to it because there isn't anything else out for it. I'd be surprised if Canon dropped their DSLRs entirely. Instead I can see them contract the focus on product lines and new product lines and camera lines instead of spreading their attention thin like they had started to do.


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## TWX (Jan 9, 2020)

Overread said:


> Canon might be releasing more for their mirrorless brand, but lets not forget that they've a huge library of EF lenses for their regular DSLRs. Those lenses are already top of their game and chances are that updates for them don't generate huge sales because those who already have them are unlikely to upgrade so quickly when the existing models are already very top grade. The mirrorless market is newer and so there's more scope to add specific brand lenses and products to it because there isn't anything else out for it. I'd be surprised if Canon dropped their DSLRs entirely. Instead I can see them contract the focus on product lines and new product lines and camera lines instead of spreading their attention thin like they had started to do.


I'm not so sure about that, if only because they appear to have designed both the mirrorless APS-C mount and the mirrorless full-frame mount to natively control all of their respective DSLR lenses just as well as if they were native.  When I put an EF-M lens on my the M100, the menu system presents me with controls like setting manual or auto focus, or image stabilization enable/disable.  When I mount an EF-S lens, those electronic settings disappear from the menus, and the camera now responds and provides feedback on-screen when I enable or disable autofocus or image stabilization.

Canon seems to be counting on their mirrorless customers using native-mirrorless lenses and EF/EF-S lenses depending on what they wish to photograph.  Canon also appears to have lucked-out from their decisions in the mid-eighties, since it appears that their EOS lenses as far back a the launch of the system remain fully compatible with the latest cameras as if they were designed and manufactured yesterday.  I suspect this is part why Canon has not released many native lenses for either system, especially if buyers of their mirrorless offerings were buyers of their SLR/DSLR offerings, since those buyers may not want to re-buy similar performing lenses, so sales would be lackluster even if the lenses existed.

If that's their logic then it's fairly sound.  What it seems to have done is led to them focusing their attention on _small_ lenses, pocketable lenses.  Both the 15-45mm kit lens and the 22mm lens are tiny.  New-to-Canon customers may well be satisfied with these physically tiny lenses until they really get into photography, and at that point, it might not matter that they have to use an EF to EFM adapter, since the setup is still smaller than a DSLR anyway.


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## ronlane (Jan 9, 2020)

Overread said:


> Canon might be releasing more for their mirrorless brand, but lets not forget that they've a huge library of EF lenses for their regular DSLRs. Those lenses are already top of their game and chances are that updates for them don't generate huge sales because those who already have them are unlikely to upgrade so quickly when the existing models are already very top grade. The mirrorless market is newer and so there's more scope to add specific brand lenses and products to it because there isn't anything else out for it. I'd be surprised if Canon dropped their DSLRs entirely. Instead I can see them contract the focus on product lines and new product lines and camera lines instead of spreading their attention thin like they had started to do.



Overread, I understand what you are saying here and agree that they won't just abandon the DSLR market. But from what I am seeing out of the R mount stuff that Canon is putting out, that is 100% the future of the camera. To me they are getting images out of the R mount f/4 glass what they needed f/2.8 or higher on the EF mount glass. The images I have seen from the 24-105mm f/4 R mount lens is every bit as good as even the EF mount 24/70mm f/2.8 (or my Sigma EF mount 24-70mm f/2.8 Art lens).

Yes, it will take some time and serious $$$$ to switch from my EF stuff to the R mount but one more camera body iteration and I may just be ready to switch. (I really would like to have a body with 2 card slots, even a CF Express and SD slot together would be good.)


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## malling (Jan 11, 2020)

TWX said:


> Overread said:
> 
> 
> > Canon might be releasing more for their mirrorless brand, but lets not forget that they've a huge library of EF lenses for their regular DSLRs. Those lenses are already top of their game and chances are that updates for them don't generate huge sales because those who already have them are unlikely to upgrade so quickly when the existing models are already very top grade. The mirrorless market is newer and so there's more scope to add specific brand lenses and products to it because there isn't anything else out for it. I'd be surprised if Canon dropped their DSLRs entirely. Instead I can see them contract the focus on product lines and new product lines and camera lines instead of spreading their attention thin like they had started to do.
> ...



There aren’t allot of Costumers out there who are going to buy pro lenses to begin with. Most costumers have always bought the smaller, cheaper lenses and not the high end stuff. High end lenses has always been reserved for pros and crazy hobbyists. with a shrinking market where fewer and fewer enter the camera world, fewer will make that transition, in a downward spiral of death.

Allot of it has to due with the massive improvement in hardware as well as a better and smarter point and shoot software than found in dSLR and Mirrorless, so most don’t benefit of making the transition unless they are going to make 4k videos. We can’t really neglect the fact that smartphone has reduced the gap considerably for someone who only shoots in auto mode, and with the bulkiness of these it ain’t making it easier.

I also believe this plays an important part in the on going trend of shrinking cameras and reducing weight, it doesn’t make a hell lot of sense to launch the direct opposite of where the demand is and where the directions of the trend is going. Just look at Nikon they have done everything they possibly can to reduce the size and weight of their stand zoom lens, the 24-70 F2.8 is considerably lighter and smaller then most competitors and their marketing also like to point that out. It falls right in line with the trend to stop the ongoing decline, you need to make substantial smaller and lighter products to get people on board, or else they are gonna stick with smartphone or jump the Go Pro wagon. 

Secondly there is no reason to improve or launch new EF-s lenses if there isn’t a demand for it, and it’s unlikely many would cash out for a new version, most pros doesn’t do it until their old lens is worn down or they drip it. Who else is going to buy a new EF-S lens? Most new photographer go in the mirrorless direction, unless they want to photograph action and wildlife. 

They are only investing where they can make profit and that is small lightweight Mirrorless systems and lenses. Although Sony has launched pro lenses you don’t really see them launch allot of them or for that matter very often, you can go figure why that is so.


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## beagle100 (Jan 15, 2020)

malling said:


> TWX said:
> 
> 
> > Overread said:
> ...



small pocket-size Canon M6ii -  30 FPS, AF, ability to easily use DSLR lenses
no question that mirrorless has "taken over' the camera market


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## TWX (Jan 15, 2020)

beagle100 said:


> small pocket-size Canon M6ii - 30 FPS, AF, ability to easily use DSLR lenses
> no question that mirrorless has "taken over' the camera market


Especially if they continue to bundle the EF/EF-S to EF-M adapter with their mirrorless cameras.

There's a EOS M3 local to me for $200.  I can't deny that there's a temptation to go get it even though I really don't need it, especially since it doesn't come wth an EVF.

I'll probably wait and pick up a used M6-II in a few years, assuming that Canon continues to develop new cameras around that sensor and some M6-II customers decide to upgrade and sell-off their existing cameras for added ancillary features.


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