# CIPA: Less than 7 million cameras have shipped from Jan-Oct 202



## dolina (Dec 27, 2020)

https://www.dpreview.com/news/55975...s-mostly-recovered-from-its-covid-19-downturn

And I personally expect November-December 2020 to not ship more than 2 million digital still cameras (DSC).

A grand total of less than 9 million DSC shipped globally for 2020.

This would be the worst year since the all time high of 121 million back in 2010

Will it settle back again at about 1999's 5.06 million?

In 2019 the global shipment of DSC was 15.2 million vs 1.52 billion of smartphones.

That's a ratio of 1 DSC to 100 smartphones.

Camera makers are now focusing on camera features iPhones and Androids will have difficulty replicating due to their limited size. Though these "advantages" may not last long due to computational photography. The features are

Larger image sensors that allow for higher ISO and dynamic range
Super zooms that allow 35mm equivalent optical zooms of 20mm to 3,000mm
Better water resistance or ruggedness
Built-in photo paper printing
Even with the limited dimensions of a conventional smartphone R&D money from over billions of smartphones sold annually allowed for creation of

Larger image sensor: iPhone is now 47% larger than before & Android made improvements as well
Super zooms: Have been addressed by having more than 1 rear cameras with ultrawide, wide & telephoto zoom ranges
Better water resistance: iPhones 12 now can do IP68 under IEC standard 60529 (maximum depth of 6 meters up to 30 minutes) & Android can do something similar as well
Built-in photo paper printing... smartphone makers are smart enough not to sell to hipsters.


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## jcdeboever (Dec 27, 2020)

I am not moved by these stats. The camera is a tool. Doesn't matter what box they house it in.


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## dolina (Dec 28, 2020)

jcdeboever said:


> I am not moved by these stats. The camera is a tool. Doesn't matter what box they house it in.


It's a cause of concern. Either the brand will shut down and you cannot have your camera repaired when you it to be or their future products will be more expensive than you last remember.


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## cgw (Dec 29, 2020)

No mention in the OP's less-than informed chattering of the pandemic and its horrific impact on income, employment or travel. This year's decline isn't enough to interpret as a trend. It's insufficient time-series data. It's bad but I can't see large chunks of sky falling. Companies like Nikon with a knack for unforced errors in product development are another matter entirely.


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## dolina (Dec 29, 2020)

cgw said:


> No mention in the OP's less-than informed chattering of the pandemic and its horrific impact on income, employment or travel. This year's decline isn't enough to interpret as a trend. It's insufficient time-series data. It's bad but I can't see large chunks of sky falling. Companies like Nikon with a knack for unforced errors in product development are another matter entirely.


The article I linked to has all the COVID-19 details you crave for. I am not one to regurgitate it like a mama bird to its chicks as I do not see anyone here that infantile.

Now the question is will it stabilize or exceed 9 million units shipped for all 12 months of 2021 or 2022?

Or it will it decline further to say 7.2 million? It's been a nose dive since 2010


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## limr (Dec 29, 2020)

Sorry, I really don't see the point in all of this.


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## weepete (Dec 29, 2020)

Smartphones are encroching on the market and tech moves on. TBH I'd love to see the day where I can get pro quality photos of sports and wildlife from someting I'm going to buy anyway. AI could do some really interesting things, and tech may kill off a seperate camera market, but I don't think we are close yet.

There's more to it than just camera sales. Sure, the compact camera market has been pretty much destoyed by tech advancements, but what proportion of that is ILCs? And given 2020 can be pretty much written off due to Covid,will there be a massive resurgange in lifestyle photography in the coming years?


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## dolina (Dec 29, 2020)

limr said:


> Sorry, I really don't see the point in all of this.


It matters for these reasons

The brand/system you use may

increase in price of its current/future products as economies of scales drop

close down operations in countries with weak sales
cease having after sales support to repair your camera when it gets damage

file for bankruptcy and disappear as a brand orphaning your system

be bought up by the #1 or #2 camera brand, by market cap/share, or a smartphone brand like Huawei, Xiaomi, etc
My points are supported by what is happening to Pentax, Nikon, Olympus and Samsung


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## dolina (Dec 29, 2020)

weepete said:


> Smartphones are encroching on the market and teah moves on. TBH I'd love to see the day where I can get pro quality photos of sports and wildlife from someting I'm going to buy anyway. AI could do some really interesting things, and tech may kill off a seperate camera market, but I don't think we are close yet.
> 
> There's more to it than just camera sales. Sure, the compact camera market has been pretty much destoyed by tech advancements, but what proportion of that is ILCs? And given 2020 can be pretty much written off due to Covid,will there be a massive resurgange in lifestyle photography in the coming years?



I agree with all your points.

I see mirrorless to end up having at most 2 brands. Canon and probably Sony.


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## limr (Dec 29, 2020)

dolina said:


> limr said:
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> 
> > Sorry, I really don't see the point in all of this.
> ...



But...so what?

I mean, markets go through peaks and troughs all the time and this doesn't always mean the worst case scenarios.

And even if it does, so what? It's happened before. People move on. There's nothing here that indicates disaster.


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## dolina (Dec 29, 2020)

limr said:


> But...so what?
> 
> I mean, markets go through peaks and troughs all the time and this doesn't always mean the worst case scenarios.
> 
> And even if it does, so what? It's happened before. People move on. There's nothing here that indicates disaster.



For the past decade it has been a downward trend YoY

It matters to a lot of persons.

People who invested more than 1 lens or accessory to a camera body whether they're a working photographer or hobbyist.

 To make it relevant to mods I've noticed about half a dozen other photo forums that shut down their servers because of lack of user activity.

If you have access to this forum's user visits stats graph it out from day 1 of operations to today. You may notice that the bell shaped curve of the graph I provided above will nearly match this forum's # of visits  when delayed by a year or 2.

So does that matter to you now?


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## limr (Dec 30, 2020)

dolina said:


> limr said:
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> > But...so what?
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No, not really. I would like this forum to stick around, and if it doesn't, I'll miss it, but it's not my whole life and I'll move on.

Sorry, I am not going to get all worked up over this. Statistics don't tell the whole story, and market fluctuations are sometimes short term and other times long term.

Ultimately, what does it really mean, in the very long term when it would actually make a significant difference in people's lives? Professionals move on to other camera systems. Hobbyists move on to other camera systems. It has happened before, it'll happen again. I'm not going to lose any sleep over it.


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## mountainjunkie (Dec 30, 2020)

dolina said:


> limr said:
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> 
> > Sorry, I really don't see the point in all of this.
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For anyone who’s studied economics at all these are all valid points/concerns. And the graph Dolina posted above should make it clear this isn’t just a Covid thing. 

As someone who’s dabbled in deep space photography this year I can tell you that market hasn’t struggled at all. In fact the lower and mid-priced (relatively...nothing is cheap in the deep space imaging realm) scopes, cameras, and accessories have been tough to find because demand is so high. Used items commonly go for 80-90% of new because there isn’t any new inventory to be had. 

Despite the economic downturn there are enough people still with money to take up a new hobby, or to expand their existing one, as it’s something that can be done despite any social distancing regulations. 

The difference between this and mass-market DSLR cameras and lenses? Can’t touch this type of photography with a smart phone. 

Can’t blame EVERYTHING on Covid.


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## dolina (Dec 30, 2020)

limr said:


> Ultimately, what does it really mean, in the very long term when it would actually make a significant difference in people's lives? Professionals move on to other camera systems. Hobbyists move on to other camera systems. It has happened before, it'll happen again. I'm not going to lose any sleep over it.



Fewer people will be able to camera, lenses and accessories. Just hope the price increase won't be too expensive for people like me.


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## dolina (Dec 30, 2020)

limr said:


> For anyone who’s studied economics at all these are all valid points/concerns. And the graph Dolina posted above should make it clear this isn’t just a Covid thing.
> 
> As someone who’s dabbled in deep space photography this year I can tell you that market hasn’t struggled at all. In fact the lower and mid-priced (relatively...nothing is cheap in the deep space imaging realm) scopes, cameras, and accessories have been tough to find because demand is so high. Used items commonly go for 80-90% of new because there isn’t any new inventory to be had.
> 
> ...


 
Thank you for expanding my point further.

As for deep space photography it is very possible that supply of deep space hardware evaporated due to supply chain disruption while demand for it either dipped a bit or remained stable.

Hence a seller's market for deep space hardware.

Given enough R&D money and time I see iPhones and Android smartphones able to do a "poor man's" deep space photography today.

By 2030 it may match a EOS R5 or Alpha a7S III in terms of ISO, dynamic range, ISO noise, etc.

I can say this as in poor countries like the Philippines there are a number of sub-$150 Chinese smartphone users who use it to take milkyway photos.

Of course it's good enough for adults making less than $10k/year or have a wealth of less than $10k but the tech has come to a point that it's "good enough" to put on Facebook.

COVID-19 at most reduced camera shipments by 3.2 million units. This is 80% of 2019 shipping numbers minus 9 million flat of my expected 2020 shipping numbers


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## snowbear (Dec 30, 2020)

If they go away or get too expensive, learn to draw.


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## cgw (Dec 30, 2020)

OK, you got the attention you plainly relish. Much of the breathless “Chicken Little Breaking News” flashes are old news, stone-cold stuff pushed out by others with even better imaginations for the past several years. CIPA quarterly shipment stats are snapshots. Think you need to consider the relevance of the old saying that the stock market isn’t the economy.
‘


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## VidThreeNorth (Dec 30, 2020)

I posted about this back on Dec. 2, 2020, and we have discussed this at length previously over the last few years in other topics (particularly about Nikon):

"Japanese Camera Industry Down Again for 2020, but. . . ."
"Japanese Camera Industry Down Again for 2020, but. . . ."


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## dolina (Dec 30, 2020)

cgw said:


> OK, you got the attention you plainly relish. Much of the breathless “Chicken Little Breaking News” flashes are old news, stone-cold stuff pushed out by others with even better imaginations for the past several years. CIPA quarterly shipment stats are snapshots. Think you need to consider the relevance of the old saying that the stock market isn’t the economy.
> ‘


Think of it this way.

You bought your camera & lens for X amount some time ago.

When its time to replace it with a future model will you be happy to pay double that?

Here's a graph of what has been happening since 1999. Numbers dont lie... prices will sky rocket beyond many's means.


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## limr (Dec 30, 2020)

So it's been 10 years. Have they skyrocketed yet? Are cameras any more out of reach than they ever were? Is it going to happen after one more year of decline? Ten more years of decline? No one will buy used cameras?

By this logic, film camera prices should be astronomical by now.

I think your conclusion is overstated. But you seem to be quite convinced on the strength of one graph and one measure of what's happening. *shrug*


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## dolina (Dec 30, 2020)

limr said:


> So it's been 10 years. Have they skyrocketed yet? Are cameras any more out of reach than they ever were? Is it going to happen after one more year of decline? Ten more years of decline? No one will buy used cameras?
> 
> By this logic, film camera prices should be astronomical by now.
> 
> I think your conclusion is overstated. But you seem to be quite convinced on the strength of one graph and one measure of what's happening. *shrug*



Happy New Year to you!


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## limr (Dec 30, 2020)

dolina said:


> limr said:
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> > So it's been 10 years. Have they skyrocketed yet? Are cameras any more out of reach than they ever were? Is it going to happen after one more year of decline? Ten more years of decline? No one will buy used cameras?
> ...



Enjoy your falling skies.


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## dolina (Dec 30, 2020)

limr said:


> Enjoy your falling skies.



Don't get angry at me for presenting facts that do not interest you or are disagreeable.

The drop of sales I am pointing to will impact the sale price of cameras as we can see now in the present and most likely the future too.

As volume reduces the per unit sale price of cameras will only go up.

2005 5D intro price was $3,299.
2008 5D Mark II intro price was $2,699.
2012 5D Mark III intro price was $3,499.
2016 5D Mark IV intro price was $3,499.
2020 R5 intro price was $3,899.
Many here will balk at paying 2-3x what we're paying today in bodies, lenses and accessories.

I would not be surprised if the R5 Mark II will cost nearly $5,000 by year 2024 or later.

When cameras shipped settles at 5 million units per year I would not be surprised that it will be the case.

And film's as significant as LPs and range finder cameras. Appealing to the outliers of outliers.

1 film camera for every 10,000 smartphone shipped?

I'm glad I moved to digital in 1996 and never looked back ever since.


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## limr (Dec 30, 2020)

dolina said:


> limr said:
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> > Enjoy your falling skies.
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Who's angry? Why are you so interested in convincing me of your conclusion? I am clearly not interested and have said as much, and yet, here you are, continuing to pay attention to me. Why are you wasting your time?


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## dolina (Dec 30, 2020)

limr said:


> Who's angry? Why are you so interested in convincing me of your conclusion? I am clearly not interested and have said as much, and yet, here you are, continuing to pay attention to me. Why are you wasting your time?



It's discussion forum. People normally discuss topics of shared concern.

As you're not interested then why even participate?


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## limr (Dec 31, 2020)

dolina said:


> limr said:
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> 
> > Who's angry? Why are you so interested in convincing me of your conclusion? I am clearly not interested and have said as much, and yet, here you are, continuing to pay attention to me. Why are you wasting your time?
> ...



As I said, I believe your conclusion is far overstated. You are the one who keeps trying to convince me and claiming that I am angry simply because I disagree with your conclusions (and if you think I am disagreeing with the fact of declining sales, or upset that you have posted graphs, then you are misreading or inferring a whole hell of a lot that is not in anything that I wrote.) Yes, this is a discussion forum. Discussions do not mean that everyone agrees with you. People are allowed to disagree.


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## dolina (Dec 31, 2020)

Gaslighting a discussion thread that you're not interested in.

I do not expect yes men in this forum but neither did i expect people with no interest in the topic chiming in.


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## cgw (Dec 31, 2020)

dolina said:


> Gaslighting a discussion thread that you're not interested in.
> 
> I do not expect yes men in this forum but neither did i expect people with no interest in the topic chiming in.



Now I get it: people who disagree with you shouldn't bother chiming in because they aren't really interested(in agreeing with you).

Time to put this troll on a starvation diet, limr.


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## dolina (Dec 31, 2020)

cgw said:


> Now I get it: people who disagree with you shouldn't bother chiming in because they aren't really interested(in agreeing with you).
> 
> Time to put this troll on a starvation diet, limr.



The lengths people go to to shoot the messenger for news and facts they disagree with.


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## smoke665 (Dec 31, 2020)

I don't necessarily agree or disgree with "all" of the presumptions put forth by the OP, but it does seem like the criticism of the OP  has gotten a little harsh.

To me the evolution of the cell phone has killed the lower end  consumer market for cameras. There's only so much disposable income and with smart phones reaching the $$$$ mark, there isn't money left. Plus we live in a social media world where pictures are taken, and shared over the internet in seconds. There isn't a need for a secondary device that "only" takes pictures. That narrows the market considerably to the hobbyist and professional. I've yet to see professional grade equipment in anything sell cheap.

As to the life of camera manufactures, long ago they diversified into other markets. Canon, Nikon, Pentax.....are all part of diversified companies that provide products for business and the medical field. By and large cameras are only a small part of their volume. Now as camera volume declines there's a real possibility that operation funding might shift, but whether they drop the line completely is debatable.

As a life long Pentax diehard, my biggest disappointment with the brand has been the release price of the new glass. With prices ranging from over $1k to $2k it's a tough nut to crack for the average hobbyist. I've waited years for the 70-200 and the 85, but with a price of $1,800 & $1900 respectively I'll be saving a little longer. The one advantage with Pentax is the backward/forward compatibility mindset.


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## Tinstafl (Dec 31, 2020)

Asd an economist this chart says that the market is shrinking and that we will lose a brand in a short while if the trend continues.  We just had Olympus make that move.  It will soon be Nikons turn I figure.  The chart indicates that there is not enough sales to support all the manufacturers and the R&D they have to do to continue to innovate.  IF they do not innovate we will not upgrade and the stretches the replacement cycle out even further.  As it is now I do not upgrade every new model that comes out. There has to be a reason and something it does much better than what I have now.  Mirrorless has added to the new sales as people start to adopt them but once they have one how many will purchase a new body without a major change in DR or High ISO or Focus ability.  The thing is we are also forgetting is the AI in editing. That will make those who use a smartphone able to do a lot more.  It is like the typewriter here.  They used to be manual then they went electric and then they added a bit of memory so you could save your document as you typed and if you had an error instead of white out you could type a new page with a finger touch.  Now who has one on their desk any longer.  Nobody really.  The DSLR is dying for mirrorless as Film died for Digital and now the whole industry is in a down trend and soon it will be as Nikon is focusing on, the high end only.


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## cgw (Dec 31, 2020)

dolina said:


> cgw said:
> 
> 
> > Now I get it: people who disagree with you shouldn't bother chiming in because they aren't really interested(in agreeing with you).
> ...


Please... You’re just doomscrolling. What makes you think we’re blithely unaware of industry trends? They’re reported and discussed here frequently.
Lose the absurd conceit that you alone know what’s up in the industry.


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## LWW (Jan 7, 2021)

limr said:


> By this logic, film camera prices should be astronomical by now.



They are.

35mm Cameras | B&H Photo Video


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## limr (Jan 7, 2021)

LWW said:


> limr said:
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> ...



Leicas were always expensive. When a K1000 sells for $5K, then talk to me.


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## LWW (Jan 7, 2021)

Why


limr said:


> LWW said:
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The least expensive film SLR is nearly $2K.


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## limr (Jan 7, 2021)

LWW said:


> Why
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The least expensive SLR *on that list* was 2K. I don't know how you are determining the entire film camera market price from one list of four Leicas and one Nikon SLR at B&H.


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## limr (Jan 7, 2021)

And that same Nikon generally sells for half of that on ebay. Nikon F6 SLR Film Cameras for sale | eBay

And that's for a flagship Nikon that's been discontinued.

Search for more run-of-the-mill cameras? You're looking a fraction of that price.


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## LWW (Jan 7, 2021)

limr said:


> LWW said:
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Do you know of a less expensive new 35MM film SLR?

After all, B&H is a pretty small time camera store.


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## vintagesnaps (Jan 7, 2021)

Try 20 bucks, that could get you a film camera. Depends on what it is, I've bought vintage pocket cameras or midcentury plastic or bakelike cameras for that or less. I don't know how much stores like B&H even bother with selling those anymore. Leicas are valuable and camera stores still sell those. 

And how about some respect for Leo (limr), as a photographer and a moderator.


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## limr (Jan 7, 2021)

LWW said:


> limr said:
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Who is talking about only new cameras? The demand for film decreased when digital became popular, fewer and fewer cameras were made, and the ones that are still being produced are being offered at similar prices as they were before. The used market, however, is quite robust and prices are cheap, even considering the recent uptick in film sales and interest in film cameras, which did drive the price up a bit. And so there are still a lot of affordable options for people who want to shoot film.

Let's say that the same thing happens to digital and eventually, just a few kinds of digital cameras being produced. Why assume (not you - the OP) that the _only_ possible outcome is that prices will "skyrocket" so high that no one can afford them anymore? No more services, no more repair options, companies going bankrupt left and right?

No one is denying that sales have declined. The disagreement is with the conclusion that this spells disaster for the digital camera market.


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## LWW (Jan 7, 2021)

limr said:


> LWW said:
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You were talking about new film cameras.

The point you were disputing is that lower production numbers didn’t increase prices. Obviously it does, lower demand results in lower production over time. Lower production results in higher per unit production costs ... and eventually niche status and high retail price. What’s the production rate and pricing for horse drawn carriages?

The low price of used film cameras verifies this point as it is a mirror image of the problem. Millions of film SLR were available in the used market, and buyers are few and far between.


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## LWW (Jan 7, 2021)

limr said:


> And that same Nikon generally sells for half of that on ebay. Nikon F6 SLR Film Cameras for sale | eBay
> 
> And that's for a flagship Nikon that's been discontinued.
> 
> Search for more run-of-the-mill cameras? You're looking a fraction of that price.


What more run of the mill film SLR is still in production?


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## limr (Jan 7, 2021)

LWW said:


> limr said:
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Show me exactly where I said I was talking about new film cameras.

Actually, do whatever you want. I was not interested in this debate before, and I am still uninterested in belaboring the same point over and over again. I believe the conclusion was overstated and nothing has changed my mind.


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## LWW (Jan 7, 2021)

limr said:


> LWW said:
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The entire thread is about NEW camera production, not used cameras.


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## limr (Jan 7, 2021)

LWW said:


> limr said:
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So no one else is allowed to introduce a different element into the conversation? which is also directly related and relevant to the discussion because it is an element that is being completely ignored in the overstated conclusion?

And yes, it was a trick question. You can't find where I was talking about new film cameras because I wasn't.

So keep having whatever conversation you're having with yourself, because I'm done. I've already spent far too much time on this.


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## cgw (Jan 8, 2021)

LWW said:


> limr said:
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Where have you been for the last 15+ years? Remember when and why Kodak went broke? Enough shadow boxing already.


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## LWW (Jan 8, 2021)

dolina said:


> limr said:
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> > Enjoy your falling skies.
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You are right, and I should have listened.

Some folks prefer to cross the street with blinders on and then wonder how they got hit by the bus.

Perhaps the last chance for the DSLR/SLR/MILC industry is offshoring everything to dirt cheap labor factories and hope that reducing costs can keep the Titanic from sinking.

Just as film decimated tintypes, 35MM decimated larger format cameras, digital decimated 35MM the march will continue

Whether any of us like it or not.


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## LWW (Jan 8, 2021)

cgw said:


> LWW said:
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Living in reality.


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## cgw (Jan 8, 2021)

Time to call Orkin for some troll spray.


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